CEO Forecasted Softer Housing Market Through 2026
eXp Realty expects annual home sales to fall below four million transactions by the end of the year.
Updated on Oct. 6, 2026 in Residential
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eXp Realty CEO Leo Pareja has projected a cooling housing market, anticipating national transaction volumes will settle between the high three millions and low four millions. This shift marks a significant decline from the nearly seven million homes sold in 2021.
Why it matters
A persistent 7% interest rate serves as a major psychological barrier for potential buyers, while a weakening labor market limits the ability of first-time purchasers to save for down payments. These factors have contributed to a surplus of inventory and increased price volatility in regional markets.
New-construction inventory has reached an all-time high of 9.5 months of supply, while 42% of homes experienced price cuts in September 2026. Sellers currently outnumber buyers by more than 51% in several major metropolitan areas.
The players
Leo Pareja
He is the CEO of eXp Realty who provided the updated forecast regarding national home sales volume.
eXp Realty
This is a global real estate brokerage firm that monitors national housing market trends and transaction data.
The details
Builders are increasingly utilizing rate buydowns to help buyers secure mortgages near the 5% range as they contend with a high-interest environment. Unlike previous downturns, current market conditions do not rely on risky adjustable-rate mortgage structures.
Timeline
2021 saw annual home sales total nearly 7 million units.
September 2026 recorded price cuts on 42% of listed homes.
October 2026 marked the period when CEO Leo Pareja provided the market outlook.
The end of 2026 is the target timeframe for the expected drop in annual transaction volume.
Culture Shift
The transition away from the historic housing boom of 2021 reflects a broader cooling in consumer demand as interest rates and labor market pressures reshape buying power. This shift challenges the long-standing post-pandemic momentum that previously defined the national real estate landscape.
Potential buyers may find increased leverage in negotiations as sellers face significant competition, evidenced by the 51% surplus of sellers in some regions. Prospective homeowners should monitor local inventory levels and consider rate buydown programs offered by builders to offset high mortgage costs.
The takeaway
Prospective buyers should remain cautious of high interest rates and evaluate their long-term financial security amidst a softening labor market. Sellers in markets like Southwest Florida may need to adjust price expectations as depreciation trends continue to impact property values.
Further reading
Learn more about shifting homeownership trends in the Residential section.
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