Review Targets Australia's Decade-Old Terror Alert System

ASIO Director-General Mike Burgess will present findings to the Home Affairs Minister as the Counter Terrorism Online Centre begins operations.

Updated on Nov. 13, 2026 in Terrorism

Review Targets Australia's Decade-Old Terror Alert System

ASIO Director-General Mike Burgess will brief Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke on a review of Australia's terror alert system, which is a decade old. The review follows concerns that the current levels fail to convey threats that are serious but not yet imminent.

Why it matters

The current system moves to 'probable' when the chance of an onshore attack in the next 12 months exceeds 50 per cent, and 'probable' was in place when 15 people were killed in an alleged terrorist attack at Bondi Beach on 14 December. Burgess and Burke have said the system is too blunt to communicate the seriousness of threats to the public.

The alert framework's current thresholds are set at a 50 per cent likelihood of an attack within 12 months for 'probable' and specific intelligence for 'expected'. The review's findings on revised communication of threats have not yet been released, and the outcome remains subject to consultation with States and Territories.

The players

Mike Burgess

Mike Burgess is the Director-General of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation, Australia's domestic intelligence agency, and has publicly argued that the terror alert system does not convey the full picture of threats.

Tony Burke

Tony Burke is Australia's Home Affairs Minister, responsible for national security and immigration, and is receiving the review of the terror alert system.

Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO)

ASIO is Australia's national security intelligence agency responsible for protecting the country from espionage, sabotage, politically motivated violence and terrorism.

The details

The review is being presented by ASIO Director-General Mike Burgess to Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke, with results briefed next week. The Counter Terrorism Online Centre, dedicated to detecting and disrupting online violent extremism and terrorism, was announced in Sydney on Friday.

14 December: Bondi Beach attack killing 15 people at a Jewish event, when the alert level was 'probable'.
June: Burgess used the annual threat assessment to say 'probable' does not tell the full story.
May: $74 million allocated to the Counter Terrorism Online Centre in the budget.
This week: The Counter Terrorism Online Centre begins operations.
Next week: Review results briefed to the Home Affairs Minister.

Seasonal Patterns

The review revisits Australia's terror alert framework, established roughly a decade ago with thresholds of 'possible', 'probable' and 'expected'. It tests whether a system built around a 50 per cent, 12-month probability threshold can still convey threats to the public after the Bondi Beach attack.

The review could change how threat levels are announced to the public, affecting how residents understand the risk of attacks in their communities. The Counter Terrorism Online Centre begins operations this week, aiming to detect and disrupt violent extremist content online.

The takeaway

The review highlights the challenge of conveying serious but non-imminent threats through a system designed around specific probability thresholds. Readers can follow official government announcements for the review's outcome as it is consulted with States and Territories.

What happens next

The review results will be briefed to the Home Affairs Minister next week, with the outcome to be consulted with States and Territories after Ministerial review.