Australian Black Friday Spending to Increase in November
Average consumer spending is forecast to rise to $346 during the upcoming retail period.
Updated on Oct. 20, 2026 in Spending
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Shopify forecasts that the average Australian spend during Black Friday and Cyber Monday will reach $346 this November. This follows an average spend of $324 in 2025 despite ongoing economic pressures.
Why it matters
The rise in projected spending comes as consumers become increasingly value-driven, with 85 per cent of shoppers waiting for specific product deals. This shifts retail strategy as households navigate an annual inflation rate of 4 per cent.
Average Australian spending is forecast to rise 6.8 per cent, contrasting with a projected 3.1 per cent decline in global spending. This occurs as 54 per cent of respondents report that current economic conditions are impacting their holiday shopping.
The players
Shopify
This multinational e-commerce company provides a platform for businesses to create and manage online stores.
Reserve Bank of Australia
This is Australia's central bank, responsible for monetary policy, currency issuance, and maintaining financial system stability.
The details
Shoppers are increasingly utilising AI tools to research options and weigh product choices before purchasing. Retail activity remains robust, with sales in November 2025 having increased 7 per cent year on year.
Timeline
2024 served as the comparison baseline for early Christmas shopping habits.
July 2026 marked the completion of the consumer survey by Shopify.
September 2026 saw an interest rate increase by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
November 2026 is the anticipated peak retail period.
Market Dynamics
This forecast reflects a shift in household consumption following the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate increase in September 2026. The trend highlights a divergence where local demand remains resilient despite the broader tightening of monetary policy.
Shoppers can expect a highly competitive retail environment as 85 per cent of Australians wait for specific product promotions. High interest rates continue to shape household budgets, necessitating careful planning for those looking to manage discretionary spending.
The takeaway
Consumers are becoming more discerning by using AI tools to find the best value during promotional events. Planning purchases in advance can help households navigate the ongoing 4 per cent inflation rate.
Further reading
For more information on household trends, see the Spending section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Jewellermagazine.
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