El Nino Brings Long Dry Season to Marianas
The National Weather Service says the Mariana Islands can expect a longer, drier-than-normal dry season as water shortages spread across islands and atolls.
Updated on Nov. 15, 2026 in Forecasts
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The National Weather Service says the Mariana Islands region can expect a long dry season caused by El Nino, and water shortages are already being reported across multiple islands and atolls as catchments begin to run dry. Guam is under moderate fire danger after limited rainfall over the last two weeks.
Why it matters
The El Nino Advisory remains in place, and the Climate Prediction Center puts the chance of a strong-to-very strong event through January-March 2027 above 79%, so dry conditions are expected to worsen and spread without significant rain. Residents who depend on catchment water and anyone planning outdoor burning face elevated risk in the coming months.
The Climate Prediction Center gives a 79% chance of a strong-to-very strong El Nino through January-March 2027, with 95% odds of a very strong event through November-January, using El Nino records dating to 1950. Abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions are observed across many islands, but the forecast does not yet specify the total rainfall expected during the dry season.
The players
National Weather Service
The National Weather Service is the U.S. federal agency responsible for weather forecasts and warnings, including its Climate Prediction Center, which issues El Nino outlooks.
The details
Western wind anomalies and enhanced convection in the central and eastern Pacific are suppressing rainfall farther west toward Indonesia and across the Marianas. Burning permits are required for backyard fires on Guam and possibly other islands while fire danger remains moderate.
Timeline
2026: Several typhoons have passed through the Marianas during the onset year of the current El Nino event.
Nov. 12: The Climate Prediction Center's monthly El Nino discussion confirmed the advisory remains in place.
January through April 2027: Well-below normal rainfall is anticipated during the coming dry season.
Early 2027: The risk for late-season tropical cyclones remains elevated into this period.
Seasonal Patterns
This follows the Climate Prediction Center's standing El Nino Advisory pattern, in which the onset year tends to be wetter than normal and the offset year drier, and the 2026 typhoon activity fits the first phase. The coming January-April dry season marks the shift to the drier offset-year pattern the advisory describes.
Residents should conserve water now and check catchment supplies, since water shortages are already reported across several islands and atolls. Anyone planning backyard burning should confirm permit requirements on Guam and other islands before lighting any fire.
The takeaway
Stocking water and confirming burn permits before the drier months arrive can reduce the impact of a long El Nino dry season across the Marianas.
What happens next
The Climate Prediction Center's next monthly El Nino diagnostic discussion will update the advisory and probability outlook for the coming dry season.
Further reading
For the latest outlook on how these conditions may develop, see Forecasts for context on upcoming seasonal patterns.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Guampdn.
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