Samoa Warns of Developing Tropical Disturbance
Samoa's weather service says a system northeast of the islands has a high potential to become a tropical cyclone within 24 hours.
Updated on Nov. 14, 2026 in Forecasts
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The Samoa Meteorological Service identified tropical disturbance TD02F about 1,526 kilometres northeast of Apia, moving slowly west-southwest, with a high potential to become a tropical cyclone. The U.S. National Weather Service in Pago Pago is monitoring the same system, identified as Invest 95P.
Why it matters
Fresh, gusty southeasterly winds and a marine advisory are already in effect across the Samoan islands, and the disturbance has brought rain and cloudy conditions to the Cook Islands. Samoa has entered the 2026-27 tropical cyclone season, which the forecast says could see one to three named cyclones form in or pass within 400 kilometres of the country.
The figures come from a forecast assessment issued by the Samoa Meteorological Service, which places the system about 1,526 kilometres northeast of Apia, and a seasonal outlook projecting between one and three named cyclones near Samoa. It remains unresolved whether the disturbance will strengthen as expected or how its track will evolve once it begins moving westward.
The players
Samoa Meteorological Service
The national weather agency of Samoa, responsible for issuing tropical cyclone warnings and advisories for the islands.
U.S. National Weather Service Pago Pago
The National Weather Service office in Pago Pago, American Samoa, which is monitoring the Invest 95P system in the region.
The details
The Samoa Meteorological Service's 9am advisory identified the system as tropical disturbance TD02F, moving slowly west-southwest. Invest 95P is forecast to strengthen and begin moving westward on Sunday, with development into a tropical cyclone possible within the next 24 hours.
Timeline
Sunday, November 15, 2026: Samoa Meteorological Service issues its 9am advisory identifying the disturbance.
Within the next 24 hours: The system could develop into a tropical cyclone.
Sunday: Invest 95P is forecast to strengthen and begin moving westward.
Seasonal Patterns
The Samoa Meteorological Service's forecast of one to three named cyclones for the 2026-27 season places this disturbance within the region's standard November-to-April cyclone window. The U.S. National Weather Service's Invest 95P tracking designation, used in Pago Pago, shows how the same system is being monitored by two national forecasting bodies.
Residents across the Samoan islands should monitor official Samoa Meteorological Service advisories and heed the marine advisory covering all surrounding waters. Fresh, gusty southeasterly winds are already in effect, so securing loose outdoor items and avoiding exposed coastal waters is advisable until the system's track is clearer.
The takeaway
The 2026-27 season has begun, and forecasters expect between one and three named cyclones to form in or pass near Samoa. Keeping track of official advisories as the system develops over the next day is the most practical step for residents.
What happens next
The Samoa Meteorological Service's assessment indicates the system could develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours, with a westward move forecast to begin Sunday.
Further reading
For the latest outlooks on cyclone development and track projections, see Forecasts.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Samoa Observer Online.
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