Researchers Improve El Niño Forecasting Reliability
Australian scientists find Pacific conditions can signal major climate events up to a year in advance.
Updated on Nov. 7, 2026 in Forecasts
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CSIRO and University of Melbourne researchers found that initial Pacific Ocean conditions significantly influence the accuracy of long-range climate forecasts. Predictions beginning during La Niña conditions remained reliable up to 12 months ahead, while those starting from neutral conditions performed less accurately.
Why it matters
The findings could help communities prepare earlier for droughts, floods and other extreme weather events linked to El Niño and La Niña. Improved lead time gives governments and planners more opportunity to act before impacts arrive.
The analysis covered more than 7,500 historical climate forecasts from models developed in nine countries, comparing accuracy by the ocean conditions at the start of each prediction. The approach has not yet been adopted into operational forecasting systems.
The players
CSIRO
Australia's national science agency, which conducts research across climate, ocean and environmental sciences.
University of Melbourne
A public research university in Victoria, Australia, known for its climate and earth sciences research.
The details
Researchers evaluated predictions by the conditions from which they began, finding that forecasts launched during La Niña stayed reliable for up to a year. Forecasts starting from neutral conditions were less accurate, and the team said more work is required before the method can be used operationally.
Timeline
Article on the findings published 7 November 2026.
Seasonal Patterns
The findings build on decades of CSIRO long-range climate modelling by showing that forecast skill depends heavily on the Pacific's starting state. This suggests seasonal outlooks can be more useful when they account for whether La Niña or neutral conditions are present at launch.
Communities in drought- and flood-prone regions should watch for official seasonal outlooks as these methods mature. Emergency planners may be able to use longer lead times once the approach is adopted into operational systems.
The takeaway
Forecasts launched during La Niña can be trusted further ahead than those starting from neutral conditions. Checking the current Pacific state can help judge how much confidence to place in a long-range outlook.
Further reading
Explore more on Forecasts to see how long-range outlooks are produced and used.
Source note: This article includes information reported by The Portugal News.
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