NOAA Says Strong El Niño Is Strengthening
Federal forecasters expect the very strong event to continue into spring 2027, with wetter-than-normal conditions favored across much of the southern U.S. this winter.
Updated on Nov. 2, 2026 in Forecasts
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NOAA says a very strong El Niño is strengthening in the tropical Pacific. Its latest outlook favors wetter-than-normal conditions across California, the Southwest and much of the southern U.S. this winter.
Why it matters
El Niño shifts precipitation and temperature patterns that feed directly into hydropower, solar output and heating demand. Those effects can reshape how regional electricity systems are planned and operated.
A March study found previous super El Niños reduced potential solar output by nearly 5% over 12 months in parts of California and by more than 10% in the state's north during winter. How closely this year's event will match those past reductions has not been established.
The players
NOAA
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is the U.S. federal agency that issues the official seasonal outlooks tracking El Niño and other climate patterns.
The details
NOAA's latest outlook favors wetter-than-normal conditions across California, the Southwest and much of the southern U.S. this winter, while the northern Rockies and parts of the Great Lakes lean drier and much of the northern U.S. leans warmer. Federal water managers, states and utilities use seasonal forecasts to plan for potential hydropower availability at Hoover and Glen Canyon dams on the Colorado River.
Timeline
Winter 2026-27: NOAA outlook favors wetter conditions in California and the South.
Spring 2027: El Niño expected to continue into this period.
Seasonal Patterns
Earlier super El Niño events analyzed in a March study were associated with reduced solar output in California, and the current event may follow that pattern. The comparison is drawn from the prior events the study examined.
Residents and grid operators in affected regions should watch seasonal outlooks as winter approaches, since reduced hydropower or solar output could raise reliance on backup generation. Preparing for shifts in local precipitation and heating demand depends on which regional forecast applies.
The takeaway
Seasonal outlooks give grid planners and households time to adjust before conditions change. Checking the forecast for your region can help you anticipate shifts in energy availability and costs over the coming months.
Further reading
For the seasonal outlook behind this event, see Forecasts.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Axios.
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