Putin's Ukraine Routes to Victory Stall
The Wall Street Journal reports that two of Vladimir Putin's four paths to victory in Ukraine have failed.
Updated on Nov. 13, 2026 in Oil and Gas
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Should the U.S. keep pushing Ukraine toward a negotiated settlement with Russia?
The Wall Street Journal reported that two of Vladimir Putin's four routes to victory in Ukraine have failed. Following U.S.-mediated peace talks in Abu Dhabi, the war is now defined by attrition, and Putin's hope of forcing Ukraine's president to accept unfavorable terms through the Trump administration now looks unlikely.
Why it matters
Ukraine's defiant front-line resistance has dashed Russian hopes of breaking its army, while Ukraine's drone campaign against Russian refineries is squeezing Moscow's oil sector. Incoming Democratic majorities in Congress also reduce the chances that the administration eases sanctions on Russia.
Ukraine has struck nine of Russia's 35 major refineries since late October, and Russian oil-producing capacity has reportedly been cut by 30 percent. Actual output has fallen from 5 million to 2.2 million barrels per day, though the source does not say how long the decline will last.
The players
Vladimir Putin
Russia's president, who has pursued military objectives in Ukraine and is now facing setbacks to his strategy for victory.
Donald Trump
The current President of the United States, whose administration has pressed Ukraine toward negotiations with Moscow.
Volodymyr Zelensky
Ukraine's president, who has faced pressure from the Trump administration to yield to Moscow and has continued to resist on the front line.
Yuri Ushakov
A senior Russian official who said in late October that America has "precious little" to bring to the negotiating table.
Tatiana Stanovaya
A political analyst who projects that Putin will keep fighting until the situation in Ukraine changes or shifts in Europe occur.
The details
Ukraine is conducting a drone blitz against Russian refineries while its forces continue to resist on the front line. Yuri Ushakov said in late October that America has "precious little" to bring to the negotiating table, and Trump's administration has pressed Zelensky to yield to Moscow, including through an encounter in the Oval Office.
Timeline
Late October 2025: Yuri Ushakov said America has "precious little" to bring to the negotiating table.
Since late October 2025: Ukraine hit nine of Russia's 35 major refineries.
Thursday: A Russian military colonel was killed by a car bomb in St. Petersburg.
New year (2027): Democratic majorities take control of Congress.
Market Landscape
The stalled Russian strategy follows the failure of its early 2022 plan to seize Kyiv quickly, now shifting the war into a contest of attrition. Ukraine's refinery campaign also tests Russia's ability to sustain the oil revenue that funds the war, a pressure point that bears on the global oil market.
Reduced Russian refinery output and lower crude production could tighten global petroleum supply and affect fuel prices. Investors tracking energy stocks and commodity exposure should watch whether Congress's new Democratic majorities change the chances of U.S. sanctions relief for Russia.
The takeaway
Ukraine's sustained resistance and refinery strikes show that Russia's path to victory has grown longer and costlier. Readers tracking energy markets should note that pressure on Russian oil output can ripple into global supply.
Further reading
For more on how supply disruptions are reshaping global energy markets, see the Oil and Gas section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by The Daily Beast.
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Should the U.S. keep pushing Ukraine toward a negotiated settlement with Russia?
