CGIAR Report Examines Early Warning Gaps Amid El Niño
The State of Early Warning Around the World report was launched at the COP31 Food & Agriculture Pavilion in Antalya.
Updated on Nov. 13, 2026 in Forecasts
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CGIAR and partners launched The State of Early Warning Around the World report at the COP31 Food & Agriculture Pavilion in Antalya on 11 November. The report examines how countries can turn early warnings into timely action as El Niño and fertilizer market disruptions threaten food systems.
Why it matters
Both El Niño and fertilizer market disruptions are becoming visible before their full effects are felt, making the timing of warnings and responses critical for food systems. Seasonal forecasts can provide governments several months of advance notice for agricultural planning.
The figure comes from CGIAR-led field trials, with more than 2,700 on-farm trials conducted in Ethiopia to build fertilizer guidance for local conditions. The extraction does not report a baseline comparison, and it is unclear how widely the recommendations have been adopted.
The players
CGIAR
CGIAR is a global research partnership working on agricultural innovation, food security and climate adaptation across developing countries.
International Water Management Institute
The International Water Management Institute is a CGIAR research center focused on water and land management for food and livelihoods.
The details
The report takes stock of progress in early warning systems and the gaps that limit their effectiveness, drawing on discussions with practitioners working across different regions and hazards. Panelists at the session, moderated by Todd Rosenstock of the CGIAR Climate Action Program, included officials and researchers who questioned why resilience funds available through development banks remain slow to move.
Timeline
11 November 2026: COP31 Food & Agriculture Pavilion session on early warnings held in Antalya
Seasonal Patterns
The report fits within the CGIAR Climate Action Program's work on linking seasonal climate forecasts to agricultural planning, extending that agenda toward how forecast lead times translate into government and funder decisions. It shows the gap between forecast availability and the speed of resilience financing that the program's research has increasingly highlighted.
Governments and agricultural planners can use seasonal forecasts, which can offer several months of advance notice, to schedule planting, input purchases and food reserves. Stakeholders who wait for full impacts to appear before acting risk losing that lead time.
The takeaway
Early warnings deliver value only when they are linked to funding and decisions made in time. The report's focus on converting forecasts into action points to the importance of closing that gap before climate shocks arrive.
Further reading
Explore more on Forecasts to see how seasonal outlooks support early action.
Source note: This article includes information reported by CGIAR System.
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