NATO Weighs Shift to One Major Scenario
Allies have begun negotiating a draft planning document that would prioritize countering Russia over simultaneous crisis-management missions.
Updated on Nov. 11, 2026 in Military
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The 32 NATO member states have begun negotiations on Political Guidance, a draft planning document that would no longer require allies to fight a major European war and conduct smaller crisis-management missions at the same time. The draft proposes replacing 'and' with 'or' in the force requirement, and according to NATO diplomats, the current text favors the 'or' option.
Why it matters
The change would reshape how allies size and prepare their forces after more than 20 years of planning for both scenarios at once. It is linked to a US initiative called 'NATO 3.0' that refocuses the alliance's core mission on defending Europe.
The requirement to maintain forces for both a major European war and crisis-management missions has been in place for at least 20 years, and the 32 member states must finalize the change by February before approving new capability requirements by 2029. Whether the draft text will be adopted in its current form has not been determined, and budgetary pressures could complicate the process.
The players
NATO
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is a 32-member transatlantic military alliance founded in 1949 to provide collective defence among its members.
The details
NATO allies are negotiating Political Guidance, a draft planning document that would require forces to be available for one of two scenarios rather than both. The change would not automatically affect ongoing NATO missions in Kosovo or Iraq, and the US is currently reviewing its military presence in Europe.
Timeline
February: Allies are expected to finalise the agreement.
2029: Allies are due to approve new military capability requirements, the end of a four-year process.
Political Context
The draft planning change follows the US 'NATO 3.0' initiative, which refocuses the alliance's core mission on defending Europe. Critics and allies alike must weigh whether dropping the dual-scenario requirement strengthens deterrence against Russia or leaves gaps in crisis-management capacity.
For readers following transatlantic security, the draft would change how many forces NATO plans to keep ready for a single major contingency rather than two. Any shift in US troop levels in Europe would directly affect the forces available to meet those requirements.
The takeaway
The shift from 'and' to 'or' signals that NATO is treating a major European conflict as its overriding planning priority. Readers should watch the February finalisation and the 2029 capability decisions to see how that priority is funded.
What happens next
Allies are expected to finalise the Political Guidance agreement by February, with new military capability requirements due for approval by 2029.
Further reading
Explore more on Military developments shaping NATO's planning priorities.
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