ING Sees Azerbaijan Rates Steady in 2027
ING's outlook for Central Asia and the Caucasus projects steady policy in Azerbaijan alongside cautious cuts in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
Updated on Nov. 11, 2026 in Inflation
ING forecasts that the Central Bank of Azerbaijan will keep its key interest rate largely unchanged in 2027, after holding it at 6.5% on October 29, 2026. The bank's outlook also expects Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to retain room for cautious rate cuts.
Why it matters
Countries across the Central Asia and Caucasus region have so far shown resilience against rising global inflation. Strong national currencies, positive real interest rates and external financial inflows are helping limit imported inflation, shaping how policymakers weigh their next moves.
The Central Bank of Azerbaijan's key rate is 6.5%, inside a corridor running from 5% to 7.5%. The forecast rests on ING's baseline and alternative scenarios, and the alternative case is not detailed in the available data.
The players
ING
ING is a global banking and financial services group headquartered in the Netherlands that publishes economic research and forecasts on emerging markets.
The details
ING assessed the economic and monetary outlook for 2027 across the region, projecting that Armenia will pursue a tighter monetary policy while Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan retain room for cautious cuts. The forecasts are framed as projections rather than confirmed central bank decisions.
Timeline
October 29, 2026: The Central Bank of Azerbaijan kept its key rate unchanged at 6.5%.
2027: ING's forecast period for the region's monetary policy outlook.
Macro View
ING's 2027 outlook for Central Asia and the Caucasus frames the region's policy path as one of resilience against imported inflation, with Azerbaijan holding while Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan ease cautiously. Armenia's tighter stance marks a divergence within the same regional forecast.
For borrowers and savers across the region, a steady policy rate in Azerbaijan would keep borrowing costs from falling in the near term. Cautious cuts in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan could ease loan costs there, while Armenia's tighter stance points to steadier pressure on prices and credit.
The takeaway
Central banks in the region appear to be prioritizing inflation control while watching imported price pressures. Households and businesses should plan around gradual, uneven rate moves rather than sharp shifts.
Further reading
For broader context on how price pressures shape rate decisions, explore Inflation coverage.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Azeri - Press Informasiya Agentliyi.
