ILO Pegs Ethiopia Heat Losses at $33.3B by 2040
Six International Labour Organization country studies project heat-driven working-time losses across Ethiopia, Ghana, Lebanon, the Maldives, Senegal and Sri Lanka.
Updated on Nov. 11, 2026 in Employment
The International Labour Organization published six country studies on heat stress in late October, estimating Ethiopia's annual output loss at US$33.3 billion by 2040 under a low-emissions pathway. Losses range from US$575.5 million in the Maldives to US$33.3 billion in Ethiopia.
Why it matters
The ILO counts the losses as working time rather than jobs destroyed, showing how rising heat erodes labour capacity in economies where agriculture and outdoor work are central. The findings add to evidence that heat stress is an economic risk for developing countries, not only an environmental one.
The ILO's estimates rely on full-time job equivalents, which add up hours workers lose to heat as if they were whole jobs, a method that projects 1.78 million such equivalents lost annually in Ethiopia by 2040. The studies do not state these losses as a share of national output, and the higher-emissions scenarios are projections rather than settled outcomes.
The players
International Labour Organization
The United Nations agency that sets international labour standards and publishes research on employment and working conditions worldwide.
Climate Vulnerable Forum
A coalition of climate-vulnerable countries that advocates for climate finance and adaptation support for nations most exposed to climate impacts.
The details
The six studies, supported by the Climate Vulnerable Forum and the Vulnerable 20 Finance Ministers through a joint fund, combine climate projections, labour market data and economic modelling. In 2023, farming accounted for about three-quarters of Ethiopia's heat-related working-time losses.
Timeline
2023: Farming accounted for about three-quarters of Ethiopia's heat-related working-time losses.
Late October 2026: The ILO published the six country heat stress studies.
2040: Projected annual Ethiopia loss of US$33.3 billion under a low-emissions pathway.
2060: Higher-emissions scenarios project annual Ethiopia losses of US$79.4 billion to US$310.3 billion.
Economic Trajectory
The ILO's country studies extend its heat-stress research program by translating heat exposure into working-time and job-equivalent losses for six developing economies. The projections highlight how agriculture-heavy countries face the largest exposure under both low- and higher-emissions pathways.
Outdoor and agricultural workers in heat-exposed countries face reduced working hours as temperatures rise, which the ILO estimates as a large loss of income-generating time. Readers in other regions may see effects through food and commodity prices tied to lower farm output.
The takeaway
Heat stress is increasingly a labour and economic issue, not only an environmental one, and the ILO's figures suggest adaptation spending on workplaces and farming could protect substantial output. The scale of projected losses makes the choice between low- and higher-emissions pathways a major economic variable.
Further reading
For more on how workplace conditions shift under climate pressure, explore Employment coverage.
Source note: This article includes information reported by The Rio Times.
