CORSIA Credit Supply Falls Short of Airline Demand
Analysis finds credit supply may cover only a quarter of first-phase airline demand under the UN aviation offset scheme.
Updated on Nov. 11, 2026 in Air Travel
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Supply of credits for the CORSIA carbon offset scheme may cover at most a quarter of airline demand in its first mandatory phase, according to an analysis of data from the UN's International Civil Aviation Organization. Airlines must buy CORSIA credits by the end of January 2028 or face penalties.
Why it matters
With about 130 countries in the mandatory first phase and strict eligibility rules following fraud scandals, a shortfall in qualifying credits could raise costs and pressure airlines seeking compliance. Analysts expect credit prices to rise as demand meets limited supply.
Credits currently sell for around $12 to $13 a ton, and Roland Berger puts airline compliance costs at $3.6 billion to $9 billion, assuming $20 to $50 per credit. Britain has proposed a national penalty of £100 ($134) per ton.
The players
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)
The UN agency that oversees international civil aviation and administers the CORSIA carbon offset scheme.
Standard Chartered
A London-headquartered international bank whose analyst Chris Leeds projects first-phase demand of up to 200 million metric tons.
Air France-KLM
A major European airline group that has yet to purchase CORSIA credits.
Roland Berger
A global strategy consulting firm that estimated airline compliance costs under CORSIA.
The details
The CORSIA first mandatory phase runs from January 2024 to the end of 2026, with about 130 countries participating. Air France-KLM has yet to buy CORSIA credits, and the scheme's strict offset rules limit which credits qualify.
Timeline
January 2024: CORSIA first mandatory phase begins.
End of 2026: CORSIA first mandatory phase ends.
End of January 2028: Airlines must buy credits or face penalties.
Roadmap
CORSIA is the first global market-based measure for international aviation emissions, and its first mandatory phase is now testing whether enough qualifying credits exist to meet airline obligations. The shortfall highlights how strict eligibility rules following past fraud scandals can constrain offset supply.
Higher compliance costs could feed into airfares as airlines pass on the expense of buying offsets. Travelers booking flights during the coming years may see prices shaped by how the credit market performs.
The takeaway
The gap between CORSIA's demand and the small pool of qualifying credits suggests airfares and airline carbon costs could rise as the 2028 deadline approaches. Readers should watch whether more countries and projects gain authorisation.
What happens next
Airlines must buy CORSIA credits by the end of January 2028 or face penalties.
Further reading
For broader context on how aviation emissions rules are shaping flight operations, see Air Travel.
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