WMO Warns 2027 Could Break Global Heat Record
The World Meteorological Organization says El Niño may push global temperatures to a new annual high after a run of record-warm years.
Updated on Nov. 9, 2026 in Environmental
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The World Meteorological Organization released its State of the Climate Update 2026 on November 9, 2026, as world leaders gathered in Antalya, Türkiye, for COP31. Global average surface temperature from January to September 2026 reached about 1.47°C above the pre-industrial average, and the agency warned 2027 could become another record-breaking year.
Why it matters
El Niño releases heat stored in the ocean, adding to warming driven by greenhouse gas emissions, and its strongest effects are often felt in the year after it develops. The past 12 years have each been the warmest on record, so a further record would extend an unusually steep warming streak.
The WMO's observations place 2023 through 2026 as the four warmest years on record, with 2024 holding the high at 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels. El Niño typically raises annual global average temperatures by 0.1°C to 0.2°C, and the size of the 2027 effect remains unresolved.
The players
World Meteorological Organization
The United Nations specialized agency for weather, climate and water, which tracks global temperature and issues climate assessments.
The details
The WMO update notes that El Niño releases heat stored in the oceans, which adds to warming from greenhouse gas emissions. El Niño is expected to become the strongest on record by December 2026, and the agency said 2026 is expected to rank among the four warmest years on record.
Timeline
2024: global temperature record of 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels is set.
November 9, 2026: WMO releases State of the Climate Update 2026.
December 2026: El Niño is expected to become the strongest on record.
2027: greatest El Niño warming effects are expected, with a possible new record year.
Seasonal Patterns
The WMO's State of the Climate Update 2026 extends its annual tracking of global temperature, which has now logged the past 12 years as the warmest on record. The update's projection that 2027 could set a new high places this year's findings within the agency's ongoing record-year series.
Nigeria's hydropower output fell by 25 per cent during past El Niño events, and West African drought risk could affect electricity supply again. Households and utilities in hydropower-dependent regions may face reduced power availability if El Niño develops as forecast.
The takeaway
Global temperature records are being set in close succession, so readers should expect the warming trend to continue and plan for heat, drought and hydropower disruption. The WMO's projection suggests the near-term pattern is not reversing.
What happens next
El Niño is expected to become the strongest on record by December 2026, and the greatest warming effects are expected in 2027.
Further reading
For broader context on warming trends, see Environmental coverage.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Thewillnews.
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