Cocoa Prices Slide as Inventories Hit Multi-Year High
New York and London cocoa futures fell to multi-month lows as ICE cocoa inventories reached a 2.5-year high.
Updated on Nov. 9, 2026 in Consumer Goods
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NY cocoa fell to a 4.25-month nearest-futures low and London cocoa dropped to a 3.25-month low on the day. ICE cocoa inventories climbed to a 2.5-year high of 3,751,670 bags, easing supply concerns.
Why it matters
Rising stockpiles and stronger export flows from producers such as Nigeria have offset tighter supply signals for the crop. Forecasts of an El Niño-driven deficit in 2026/27 could reverse the current price trend.
Q3 North American cocoa grindings fell 2.5% y/y to 109,978 MT, while Asian grindings rose a record 29% y/y to 233,767 MT and European grindings rose 3.2% to 348,215 MT. Demand shifts across regions are visible in the grinding data, but the source does not explain the drivers behind the divergence.
The players
StoneX
StoneX is a global financial services firm whose commodity research group publishes cocoa supply and demand forecasts used by market participants.
National Confectioners Association
The National Confectioners Association is a trade group representing North American candy and confectionery manufacturers that publishes quarterly cocoa grinding statistics.
The details
Cocoa prices have trended lower over the past three weeks as inventories steadily increased since the start of the year. Nigeria's September cocoa-bean exports rose 33% y/y to 19,343 tons, while Ivory Coast farmers delivered 55,317 MT to ports in the week ended November 8.
Timeline
August 20, 2026: Ghana Cocoa Board estimated the 2026/27 crop at 650,000 MT.
October 15, 2026: The National Confectioners Association reported Q3 North American grindings fell 2.5%.
October 29, 2026: StoneX revised its 2026/27 forecast to a 64,000 MT deficit.
Market Landscape
The US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño pattern will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years, a signal that producers in West Africa and Ecuador may face output losses. StoneX forecasts world cocoa production in 2026/27 will fall 9.6% to 4.74 MMT, which would tighten a market currently weighed down by rising inventories.
Cocoa price swings can influence the cost of chocolate and confectionery products sold to consumers. A projected supply deficit for 2026/27 could push retail prices higher if the El Niño forecast holds.
The takeaway
Monitor ICE cocoa inventory levels and producer export data as early indicators of whether the projected 2026/27 deficit takes hold. Price direction over the coming months will depend heavily on how the El Niño pattern develops.
Further reading
Track more coverage of agricultural commodity markets in the Consumer Goods section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Barchart.
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