Ivory Coast Rainfall Dips, Cocoa Outlook Holds
Below-average rain across most cocoa regions has not stressed trees, and farmers expect favorable conditions to support the January-February harvest.
Updated on Nov. 2, 2026 in Current Conditions
Rainfall was below average last week across most of Ivory Coast's cocoa-growing regions, the world's top cocoa-producing country. Farmers in several regions reported favorable or improving growing conditions despite the shortfall.
Why it matters
Ivory Coast supplies the largest share of the world's cocoa, so weather affecting its crop is closely watched by global buyers. Pods due for harvest through late December are already well developed, supporting prospects for a strong main crop.
Soubre recorded 6.9 mm of rain last week, 18.8 mm below its five-year average, while Daloa recorded 8.2 mm, 9.5 mm below average. Weekly temperatures across the country ranged from 27.4 to 30.4 degrees Celsius, and it remains unclear how long rainfall will stay below normal.
The players
Kouassi Kouame
A cocoa farmer in Ivory Coast who warned that heavy and regular rain would cause rotten beans.
The details
Farmers in Agboville, Divo, Abengourou, Daloa, Bongouanou, and Yamoussoukro reported favorable or improving growing conditions despite the lighter rain. Harvesting is gathering pace, with trucks loading beans in villages and farmers drying good-quality cocoa, while farmer Kouassi Kouame warned that heavy and regular rain would cause rotten beans.
Timeline
Last week: below-average rainfall across most cocoa-growing regions.
Through late November: weather must remain favorable for stronger harvest prospects.
Through late December: pods due for harvest are already well developed.
January and February 2027: main crop harvest expected to support strong output.
Seasonal Patterns
The rainfall shortfall arrives late in Ivory Coast's rainy season, which typically runs from April to mid-November, and sits against a five-year average baseline. Farmers' reports of healthy trees and well-developed pods suggest the dip has not yet altered the seasonal pattern that governs the main crop.
Buyers and industry watchers should track rainfall through late November, since heavy and regular rain could cause rotten beans and reduce harvest quality. Farmers are advised to keep drying good-quality cocoa as harvesting accelerates across the region.
The takeaway
Favorable weather through late November is the key variable for a strong main cocoa harvest, and monitoring rainfall will show whether the current dip stays a minor setback.
What happens next
Weather must remain favorable through late November for the January-February harvest outlook to strengthen further.
Further reading
For broader context on how changing conditions shape growing seasons, explore Current Conditions coverage.
