Global Supply Chain Costs Projected to Rise 2.7%
Kearney's Supply Chain Navigator forecasts cost increases across major economies in the first half of 2027.
Updated on Nov. 5, 2026 in Inflation
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Kearney projects global supply chain costs to rise 2.7% in the first half of 2027, with an upside possibility of 6.7%. The projection comes from the Supply Chain Navigator, a forecasting tool produced by Kearney's internal think tank, the Supply Chain Institute.
Why it matters
Rising supply chain costs can feed into the prices of goods and the cost of doing business worldwide. The Navigator's projections reflect both current costs and pressure building in risk indicators that have not yet appeared in reported figures.
Kearney's Navigator, which has been running for 10 quarters and reports an accuracy rate above 95%, projects global supply chain costs to rise 2.7% in the first half of 2027. The source does not detail how the upside possibility of 6.7% is weighted against the base projection.
The players
Kearney
Kearney is a global management consulting firm that produces the Supply Chain Navigator through its Supply Chain Institute.
Supply Chain Institute
The Supply Chain Institute is Kearney's internal think tank that produces the Supply Chain Navigator forecasting tool.
The details
The Navigator views supply chain costs through two lenses: fundamentals, covering input, labor, inventory, import and export prices, and consumer spending, and sentiment and risk, covering business activity, credit, trade-credit, and geopolitical risk. Geopolitical risk showed the largest movement across either lens, and it is among executives' top three roadblocks to growth.
Timeline
Navigator created 10 quarters before this projection
Projected cost increases apply to the first half of 2027
Market Dynamics
The Navigator's 10-quarter operating history and reported accuracy above 95% place this forecast within a continuing series of quarterly cost projections. Its explicit weighting of geopolitical risk as the largest driver shows how trade and political pressures are being treated as leading indicators of cost.
Projected cost increases of 2.7% globally and up to 5% in the United States could flow into the prices of imported goods over the coming year. Businesses and households in import-dependent markets may see these pressures reflected in the cost of everyday products.
The takeaway
Supply chain costs are influenced as much by geopolitical risk as by current input prices, so watching risk indicators can offer early signals before cost increases appear in reported figures. Readers tracking inflation can use such forward-looking measures alongside official data.
Further reading
For broader context on how cost pressures move through economies, see the Inflation section.
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Do you expect the prices of goods you buy to rise in 2027?
