Tree Planting Raises Wildfire Risk in Temperate Forests
A global study of 67,248 temperate landscape patches links afforestation to higher fire occurrence and burned area in many regions.
Updated on Nov. 4, 2026 in Environmental
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A study analyzing 67,248 patches across the world's temperate regions found that afforestation was associated with a 26% increase in fire occurrence per hectare per year and a 23% increase in expected burned area when fires ignited. The analysis drew on MODIS land-cover and fire records from 2001 to 2023.
Why it matters
Planted forests are widely promoted for carbon storage, so the finding that they can increase wildfire risk complicates reforestation strategies. Results varied sharply by forest type, underscoring that outcomes depend on local conditions.
The study relies on satellite fire and land-cover records from 2001 to 2023 for 67,248 temperate patches, showing a 26% rise in fire occurrence per hectare per year after afforestation. Results differed by forest type, and the study does not resolve how management choices would alter these effects.
The details
Forest plantations alter the fuel conditions in which fires start and spread, and dense plantings can create more continuous fuel that allows fires to travel further. Temperate conifer forests saw fire occurrence surge 2.7-fold after afforestation, while temperate broadleaf and mixed forests saw fire occurrence drop by 23%.
Timeline
2001 to 2023: Satellite fire and land-cover records were monitored across the study patches.
Seasonal Patterns
The findings echo the pattern of fire-prone Mediterranean landscapes, where fire occurrence jumped 38% and burned area rose 9%, showing how regional fire regimes shape outcomes. Rising fire weather in temperate conifer forests adds pressure to reforestation efforts intended for long-term carbon storage.
Land managers and policymakers weighing tree planting for carbon goals should consider local forest type and fire regimes before expanding plantations. Forest owners in fire-prone regions may need to plan fuel management alongside new planting.
The takeaway
Planting trees is not a universal fix for carbon goals, since the wildfire response depends heavily on forest type and regional climate. Matching reforestation choices to local fire risk can protect both carbon stores and communities.
Further reading
Explore more on Environmental research shaping forest and climate policy.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Earth.
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