Global Cooling Demand Set to Rise 80% by 2040
DNV's forecast ties rising incomes to a surge in air-conditioning electricity use, even as emissions from cooling are projected to fall.
Updated on Nov. 4, 2026 in Energy
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Global electricity demand for cooling, currently about 2,800 TWh, is expected to rise 80% by 2040, according to a DNV forecast. Carbon dioxide emissions from space-cooling electricity are projected to decline around 40% from 2022 levels toward mid-century.
Why it matters
Cooling is becoming one of the largest drivers of global electricity demand, with growth concentrated in rapidly developing regions. The forecast highlights a tension between expanding access to cooling and the need to limit power-sector emissions.
DNV projects global cooling electricity demand rising 80% by 2040 from a base of about 2,800 TWh, a continuation of 55% growth over the prior 15 years. The forecast's regional outlook, including tripling demand in the Indian Subcontinent and quadrupling in South East Asia, remains dependent on income growth and equipment efficiency gains not fully specified in the extraction.
The players
DNV
DNV is an independent energy-transition and risk-management advisory organisation that publishes long-range energy forecasts.
Global Cooling Pledge
The Global Cooling Pledge is a voluntary international initiative launched at COP28 to cut cooling-related emissions and improve air-conditioner efficiency.
The details
Demand growth is driven mainly by rising incomes, with efficiency improvements in equipment and controls offsetting only a small share of the increase. Greater air-conditioning access in South East Asia is forecast to raise emissions initially before power-sector decarbonisation brings them down.
Timeline
2023: Global Cooling Pledge launched at COP28.
2022: Baseline year for cooling emissions and efficiency targets.
2025 to 2040: Period in which rising incomes drive most cooling-demand growth.
2030: Target year for a 50% improvement in average new air-conditioner efficiency.
16 November 2026: Third Annual Cooling Ministerial scheduled at COP31.
Energy Context
The Global Cooling Pledge set a 68% cut to cooling-related emissions by 2050 from 2022 levels, a target the DNV forecast of an 80% demand rise tests directly. The projected 40% emissions decline falls short of that target, highlighting the gap between demand growth and the pledge's ambitions.
For households and businesses, rising cooling demand points toward higher electricity use in hot regions as incomes grow and air-conditioning becomes more common. Efficiency standards for new air conditioners, targeted by the pledge for 2030, could affect the cost and energy use of equipment purchased in coming years.
The takeaway
Efficiency gains alone are unlikely to offset demand growth driven by rising incomes, so the pace of power-sector decarbonisation will largely determine whether cooling emissions fall. Tracking the pledge's 2030 efficiency milestone offers a practical signal of whether that balance is shifting.
What happens next
The Third Annual Cooling Ministerial is scheduled for 16 November 2026 at COP31, where progress on the Global Cooling Pledge is expected to be reviewed.
Further reading
Explore more on Energy to see how cooling demand fits into the broader power-sector transition.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Utilities Middle East.
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