ECB Survey Raises Euro Area Inflation Outlook
Professional forecasters have revised euro area inflation expectations upward for 2026 and 2027, citing higher energy prices.
Updated on Nov. 4, 2026 in Inflation
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Experts surveyed by the European Central Bank raised their euro area headline and core inflation expectations for 2026 and 2027. Headline inflation is now expected at 3.0 per cent for 2026 and 2.6 per cent for 2027.
Why it matters
The upward revisions were driven mainly by higher energy prices and their indirect effects, which could keep price pressures elevated across the region. Long-term inflation expectations remained anchored at 2.0 per cent, suggesting confidence in the medium-term outlook.
Headline inflation is forecast at 3.0 per cent for 2026, up 0.3 percentage points, and 2.6 per cent for 2027, up 0.4 percentage points, while real GDP growth is expected at 1.0 per cent for 2026. The survey of 52 European experts, conducted October 2-7, 2026, does not yet capture the full magnitude of energy-driven effects expected later in 2027.
The players
European Central Bank
The European Central Bank is the central bank of the euro area, responsible for monetary policy across the eurozone member states.
The details
The European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters, conducted between October 2 and 7, 2026, found that forecasters raised both headline and core inflation expectations for the euro area. Professional forecasters also raised near-term real GDP growth expectations for 2026, though risks to growth were tilted somewhat to the downside across all horizons.
Timeline
October 2-7, 2026: Fourth-quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters conducted.
2026: Headline inflation forecast at 3.0 per cent.
2027: Headline inflation forecast at 2.6 per cent, with additional energy price effects expected mainly.
2028: Headline inflation forecast at 2.0 per cent.
Macro View
Long-term inflation expectations in the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters remain anchored at 2.0 per cent, the central bank's medium-term target. The upward revisions for 2026 and 2027 sit against that benchmark, indicating a temporary energy-driven deviation rather than a shift in long-run expectations.
Headline inflation forecast at 3.0 per cent for 2026 means households across the euro area may face continued upward pressure on energy-linked costs. Forecasters expect additional energy price effects mainly in 2027, so cost-of-living pressures could persist beyond the near term.
The takeaway
Energy prices are the main driver of the revised outlook, and their indirect effects may keep inflation above the 2.0 per cent target in the near term before easing in 2028. Tracking energy costs offers a useful guide to how quickly price pressures may ease.
Further reading
Explore more on Inflation trends and forecasts shaping euro area price stability.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Fibre2fashion.
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