ADB Warns of Climate Risks to Kura River Basin
An Asian Development Bank report projects warmer winters, drier summers and rising landslide and flood risks across the Kura basin in the South Caucasus.
Updated on Nov. 4, 2026 in Current Conditions
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The Asian Development Bank has published a report on climate risks in the Kura river basin, the largest river system in the South Caucasus. The assessment projects that climate change will increase the risk of landslides, flash floods and debris flows in the region.
Why it matters
The Kura flows through Türkiye, Georgia and Azerbaijan before reaching the Caspian Sea, so changes in its water supply affect several countries at once. The report was produced under the Glaciers to Farms program, which is supported by the Green Climate Fund and assessed glacier risk across four watersheds.
The assessment analyzed 40 years of weather records covering mountain and lowland areas across the basin. Projected rises in winter and summer temperatures and summer rainfall declines of up to 20% are based on these model projections, and the exact timing of individual hazard events is not specified.
The players
Asian Development Bank
The Manila-based multilateral lender funds development projects across Asia and the Pacific and led the Glaciers to Farms assessment of glacier risk.
Green Climate Fund
The United Nations-linked global fund finances climate adaptation and mitigation projects in developing countries and supports the Glaciers to Farms program.
The details
The report, prepared under the Glaciers to Farms program, examined how temperature, rainfall and snowfall have varied across mountain and lowland areas over four decades. It warns that shifts in these patterns are likely to increase the risk of landslides, flash floods, debris flows and glacier lake outbursts, particularly in Georgia.
Timeline
2035: winter temperatures in the Kura basin are projected to rise about 1°C.
2085: winter temperatures are projected to rise by up to 5°C.
Seasonal Patterns
The Kura report extends the ADB Glaciers to Farms program's assessment of glacier risk across four watersheds, applying its 40-year weather-record methodology to the Kura basin. Its projected winter warming and summer rainfall declines compare with the baseline climate record for the region.
Residents in river valleys and mountain slopes across the Kura basin should monitor official warnings for landslides and flash floods as seasonal patterns shift. Local emergency services and national meteorological agencies are the authoritative sources for evacuation routes and hazard alerts.
The takeaway
Rising winter temperatures and falling summer rainfall in the Kura basin point to a sustained increase in landslide and flood hazards that regional planners will need to address over the coming decades. Monitoring water sources that depend on snowmelt and glaciers will be central to managing those risks.
Further reading
For broader context on regional conditions, see Current Conditions.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Trend.
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