Mideast NOCs Gain Cash Despite Conflict Strains
Wood Mackenzie says ADNOC, Saudi Aramco and QatarEnergy remain resilient as bypass routes lift operating cash flow.
Updated on Nov. 3, 2026 in Oil and Gas
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Wood Mackenzie reports that the Middle East conflict has tested ADNOC, Saudi Aramco and QatarEnergy, yet bypass routes, ship-to-ship transfers and a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz lifted combined ADNOC and Aramco operating cash flow by around $35 billion, or 25%, against pre-war estimates.
Why it matters
The conflict has increased competing demands on capital, expertise and management attention for Middle East national oil companies, while flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain only partly restored. The outcome affects how much oil and gas the region can supply to global markets.
Wood Mackenzie's analysis puts the combined operating cash flow gain for Aramco and ADNOC at around $35 billion, or 25%, against pre-war estimates. Full restoration of Strait of Hormuz flows and the cost of repairs at QatarEnergy have not yet been quantified.
The players
Wood Mackenzie
A global research and consultancy firm that publishes energy sector analysis widely cited by industry investors and executives.
ADNOC
The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, the United Arab Emirates' state-owned oil and gas major that is expanding its global LNG platform.
Saudi Aramco
The state-owned national oil company of Saudi Arabia and one of the world's largest oil producers by output.
QatarEnergy
Qatar's state-owned energy company, which operates the North Field and has been hit hardest by the conflict.
The details
Bypass routes, ship-to-ship shuttle transfers and a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have helped Aramco and ADNOC keep cash flowing. QatarEnergy has taken the biggest hit, and the North Field expansion that was due to lift its liquefaction capacity from 77 to 142 mmtpa is affected, while Houthi attacks have targeted the East-West pipeline and Red Sea shipping.
Timeline
July 2026: ADNOC's global LNG platform was formed.
2027: ADNOC targets 5 million b/d of oil production.
2030: IOC share of Middle East production is projected to rise to 17%.
Early 2030s: ADNOC's 6 million b/d output is mooted and Aramco's gas supply is projected at around 180 bcm/y.
2035: ADNOC targets 47 mmtpa of marketable LNG.
Market Landscape
The rerouting of exports after the 2019 attacks on Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq facility set a precedent that Gulf producers are now using again to protect cash flow. Current bypass routes and ship-to-ship transfers extend that playbook as Houthi attacks on the East-West pipeline continue.
Stable Gulf cash flow supports steady supply of oil and LNG, which can keep energy prices from spiking for consumers. Reduced QatarEnergy output, however, could tighten global LNG availability in the near term.
The takeaway
Gulf producers are protecting revenue by rerouting exports, a tactic that buys time but leaves long-term capacity plans dependent on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors and energy buyers should track that reopening as the key variable.
What happens next
ADNOC's 2027 target of 5 million b/d is the next scheduled production milestone to watch.
Further reading
For more on how producers in the region are managing supply and investment, explore the Oil and Gas section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Macau Business.
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