Dollar Stablecoin Flows Rise Under Capital Controls
A new IMF working paper finds estimated stablecoin inflows increased when countries tightened capital restrictions.
Updated on Nov. 3, 2026 in International Trade
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International Monetary Fund economist Marco Reuter published a working paper on October 2, 2026, examining estimated cross-border flows of dollar stablecoins across 188 countries from 2018 through 2025. The analysis found estimated inflows rose when governments introduced capital controls and showed no detectable decline after those restrictions ended.
Why it matters
The findings suggest dollar-pegged stablecoins may be used to move money around capital restrictions, a question relevant to central banks and regulators monitoring cross-border capital flows. Because wallet locations cannot be read directly from blockchain transactions, the estimates rely on inferred behavior and exchange audience data.
Reuter estimated gross stablecoin transfers of $21.4 trillion from 2018 through 2025 across 188 countries, with inflows about 4% higher in the month new capital flow measures began and roughly 20% higher within six months across 217 instances. The paper does not identify the purpose of those transfers, and wallet locations remain inferred from blockchain behavior and exchange audiences.
The players
Marco Reuter
Marco Reuter is an economist at the International Monetary Fund who authored the working paper on dollar stablecoin flows.
The details
Reuter examined Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) transfers and estimated that stablecoin activity was roughly 30% higher within six months after tighter controls on money leaving a country, remaining near that level through month 12. Activity showed no detectable decline after governments removed the restrictions, and 21 countries that entered currency crises from 2021 through 2025 saw combined estimated holdings rise about $7.9 billion above a matched group of 86 economies in the first year.
Timeline
- 2018 through 2025: Period of stablecoin transfer data examined.
- 2021 through 2025: Period when 21 countries entered currency crises.
- Oct. 2, 2026: Working paper published.
- Oct. 31, 2026: Discussion of findings held.
Market Dynamics
The paper's estimates of Tether and USD Coin transfers extend the monitoring of dollar stablecoins into the study of capital controls across 188 countries. The finding that inflows persisted after restrictions ended adds to the question of how dollar-pegged tokens interact with national monetary policy.
For investors holding or transacting in dollar stablecoins, the findings indicate these tokens may be used to move funds during periods of capital restriction. Readers with exposure to emerging-market currencies may consider how such flows interact with local capital rules.
The takeaway
Dollar stablecoin activity appears to rise when capital controls tighten and does not fall back when they lift. Monitoring stablecoin flows alongside traditional capital account data may help clarify cross-border money movement.
Further reading
Explore more on International Trade coverage for context on cross-border capital flows.
Source note: This article includes information reported by TokenPost.
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