Boeing Forecasts 9,240 New China Jets by 2045
Boeing's latest outlook projects China will need thousands of new commercial aircraft as passenger air traffic grows.
Updated on Nov. 3, 2026 in Air Travel
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Boeing forecasts China will need 9,240 new commercial aircraft through 2045, a figure higher than the 9,000 aircraft in its previous outlook. Airbus separately projects China will need 8,830 new passenger aircraft over 2026 to 2045.
Why it matters
China's growing middle class, expanding visa-free travel destinations and aviation infrastructure investment are driving passenger air traffic growth. The projections point to sustained global demand for aircraft, crews and related services over the coming two decades.
Single-aisle jets account for 7,215 of the projected deliveries, or 78 percent, while widebody aircraft account for 1,460. The forecast excludes aircraft converted from passenger use, and the timing of deliveries across the 2045 horizon is not detailed.
The players
Boeing
A major American aircraft manufacturer that produces commercial airliners and publishes annual market outlooks for global aviation demand.
Airbus
A European aerospace company and Boeing's principal competitor in commercial passenger aircraft, which publishes its own long-term market forecasts.
The details
Boeing released its forecast in Beijing, projecting that China's fleet will grow to more than 9,800 aircraft by 2045 and that passenger air traffic will rise about 5 percent annually. The projections also estimate Chinese airlines will invest $875 billion over two decades in digital services, maintenance and training, and that China will need 425,000 new pilots, technicians and cabin crew.
Timeline
- November 3, 2026: Boeing announces its China forecast in Beijing.
- September 2026: Airbus releases its own 2026 to 2045 outlook.
- 2045: Forecast horizon for Boeing's projected China aircraft deliveries.
Travel Outlook
The forecast raises Boeing's previous China outlook of roughly 9,000 aircraft to 9,240, extending the pattern of upward revisions in long-term demand. Airbus's separate projection of 8,830 passenger aircraft over 2026 to 2045 places the two manufacturers' estimates for the Chinese market within a similar range.
Rising passenger demand in China and growing long-haul capacity could influence route availability and fares on international flights over the coming years. Travelers planning trips to and from China may find more aircraft and routes expanding alongside the projected growth in air traffic.
The takeaway
China's expanding air travel market is set to become the world's largest domestic market by 2045, and the scale of projected aircraft and workforce needs signals sustained growth for the global aviation industry.
Further reading
For broader context on aircraft demand and airline capacity, see Air Travel.
Source note: This article includes information reported by China Daily.
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