TotalEnergies Sees Oil Demand Peaking 2035-2040
The energy major's projection reflects a sharp rise in electric vehicle sales and expanded biofuel blending across several regions.
Updated on Nov. 2, 2026 in Oil and Gas
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TotalEnergies projects that global demand for petroleum products will rise and plateau during the 2030s, with oil demand expected to peak between 2035 and 2040. The outlook shifts from last year's forecast, which had expected oil demand to keep rising until 2040 before declining gradually.
Why it matters
The revised timeline signals that the energy transition is accelerating faster than earlier projections anticipated. The energy market crisis triggered by the US-Israeli war with Iran is also cited as a factor pushing the shift forward.
TotalEnergies' projection places the global oil demand peak in a 2035-2040 window, earlier than its prior forecast of continued growth through 2040. The exact peak volume and post-peak decline rate were not specified in the source material.
The players
TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies is a French multinational energy company active in oil, natural gas, and low-carbon electricity across dozens of countries.
The details
Electric vehicle sales rose sharply in Asia, Latin America, and Europe, and biofuel blending requirements increased. Low-carbon technology underwent a notable acceleration between Q2 2025 and Q2 2026, and the company says oil demand could fall faster if EV sales keep growing.
Timeline
Q2 2025: Low-carbon technology acceleration begins.
Q2 2026: Low-carbon technology acceleration period ends.
2035-2040: Projected window for global oil demand to peak.
Market Landscape
TotalEnergies' earlier forecast had oil demand rising until 2040 before a gradual decline, and the new 2035-2040 peak window pulls that trajectory forward. The revision reflects how quickly electric vehicle adoption and biofuel mandates are reshaping demand across major regions.
Shifting demand forecasts can influence fuel price expectations and investment decisions in energy-dependent industries. Consumers may see the effects over time as electric vehicle adoption and biofuel blending expand.
The takeaway
Demand for oil may peak earlier than previously expected as electric vehicles and biofuels gain ground. Readers tracking energy costs or sector investments should watch how quickly EV sales continue to grow.
Further reading
Explore more on Oil and Gas for context on how demand forecasts are shaping the sector.
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