Comac Will Command 5 Percent of Global Fleet by 2045
The Chinese aircraft manufacturer aims to grow its market share as global fleet demand increases significantly through 2045.
Updated on Oct. 14, 2026 in Air Travel
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Analyst firm Cirium forecasts that Chinese manufacturer Comac will grow its global aircraft fleet share to 5 percent by 2045. The company currently holds a 1 percent share of the world market.
Why it matters
The projected growth highlights the shifting competitive landscape for commercial aviation amid global supply chain bottlenecks and geopolitical tensions. While Comac expands, established players like Airbus and Boeing remain central to meeting the industry's demand for new aircraft.
Comac is projected to hold 5 percent of the global fleet by 2045, significantly trailing Airbus at 47 percent and Boeing at 39 percent. The total market for new passenger and freighter jets is expected to reach 43,000 deliveries with a value of US$3.2 trillion.
The players
Comac
The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China is a state-owned aerospace manufacturer based in Shanghai.
Airbus
This European multinational aerospace corporation is a primary global manufacturer of passenger aircraft.
Boeing
The United States-based aerospace giant is a dominant manufacturer of commercial jetliners and defense equipment.
The details
Comac, headquartered in Shanghai, is scaling production of its C909 regional jet and C919 narrowbody aircraft. The company reported 15 deliveries in 2025 and 3 deliveries in the first quarter of 2026, supported by an order book exceeding 1,000 units from domestic airlines.
Timeline
The C919 jet debuted commercially in 2023.
Comac delivered three C919 aircraft during the first quarter of 2026.
A total of 43,000 new passenger and freighter jets are expected to be delivered between 2026 and 2045.
The target year for reaching the 5 percent global fleet allocation is 2045.
Travel Outlook
This growth projection follows the Cirium fleet growth forecast, which outlines the trajectory for global passenger aviation. The expansion of Comac marks a significant shift in market distribution as the industry prepares for a 3.2 percent compound annual growth rate in the passenger fleet.
Travelers may see more Comac aircraft in service on domestic Chinese routes as the company fulfills its order book. International passengers should monitor ongoing certification processes as the company seeks to expand its operations into the European Union and other global markets.
The takeaway
The rise of new aerospace manufacturers indicates that the global aviation market is becoming increasingly diversified beyond the traditional duopoly. Industry watchers should monitor how supply chain restrictions continue to influence the production timelines of emerging aviation firms.
Further reading
For more information on the evolving aviation landscape, visit the Air Travel section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by South China Morning Post.
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