El Niño Exceptional Strength Odds Have Increased
Forecasters now place an 83 percent probability on an exceptionally strong El Niño event.
Updated on Oct. 13, 2026 in Current Conditions
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The North America Potato Storage Organization released a new bulletin highlighting risks from the intensifying El Niño weather pattern. Meteorological indicators show the Niño 3.4 index reached +2.1°C on October 8, signaling significant climate shifts.
Why it matters
Rising global temperatures can diminish the effectiveness of ambient-air cooling for agricultural storage. This climate trend necessitates increased use of refrigeration and electricity to maintain crop quality.
The Niño 3.4 index hit +2.1°C as of October 8. Experts now project an 83 percent chance that the El Niño event will reach historically exceptional levels.
The players
North America Potato Storage Organization
This trade organization provides research and guidance for professionals involved in the long-term storage of agricultural products.
World Meteorological Organization
This United Nations agency coordinates global cooperation on meteorology and climate-related research.
The details
Operators are advised to monitor individual potato lots for pulp temperature, hydration, and disease incidence. Increased ventilation and refrigeration demand are expected as warmer seasonal temperatures continue to challenge standard storage practices.
Timeline
September 2026: Probability of exceptional strength was 75 percent.
October 8, 2026: Niño 3.4 index reached +2.1°C.
October to December 2026: Period for potential exceptional El Niño strength.
November 19, 2026: NAPSO webinar scheduled on storage economics.
December 2026 to February 2027: Projected peak and duration of El Niño event.
Seasonal Patterns
The current El Niño event is tracking toward intensity levels comparable to the 1997-1998 El Niño event. This historical benchmark informs current projections regarding the duration and potential severity of the phenomenon through early 2027.
Storage operators should prioritize monitoring pulp temperature, humidity, and disease incidence to mitigate crop loss risks. Facility managers should prepare for higher electricity usage and ventilation demands throughout the upcoming months.
The takeaway
Proactive monitoring of facility data is essential for maintaining potato quality during periods of extreme climatic volatility. Industry participants should prepare for sustained increases in operational cooling requirements through early 2027.
What happens next
The North America Potato Storage Organization will host a webinar focused on storage economics on November 19, 2026.
Further reading
For more information on ongoing meteorological developments, visit the Current Conditions page.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Freshplaza.
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