El Niño Disrupts Global Food Commodity Supplies
Warmer ocean temperatures are creating volatility in critical agricultural markets across the globe.
Updated on Oct. 15, 2026 in Agriculture
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects a strong-to-very strong El Niño event, causing significant disruptions to global food commodity supplies. This climate pattern is altering production in key regions like India, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia.
Why it matters
El Niño disrupts global weather patterns by creating unusually warm Pacific Ocean temperatures, which place specific agricultural regions under severe production stress. Manufacturers are now scrambling to adjust procurement and hedging strategies to manage the resulting supply uncertainty.
Fishmeal prices have more than doubled year on year, while fish oil costs have risen more than threefold since July 2025. Markets currently anticipate a 9% rise in cocoa prices and a 5% increase for US soybean oil.
The players
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
This is a United States federal agency that provides weather forecasts and climate monitoring for the entire planet.
The details
Warmer ocean temperatures have notably impacted Peru's anchovy fishery, leading to supply reductions that have spiked feed ingredient costs. Drier conditions across major producing nations now pose a risk to the 2027/28 crop cycle for essential goods like sugar and palm oil.
Timeline
Fish oil prices began their significant increase in July 2025.
Concentrated procurement risks are expected over the next 90 days.
A strong-to-very strong El Niño is projected through January to March 2027.
Greatest risks to sugar and palm oil production are expected in 2027.
Current weather concerns are specifically impacting the 2027/28 crop cycle.
Market Landscape
This climate-driven instability forces a shift in global procurement, mirroring the supply chain stresses seen during previous major weather events. Companies are pivoting away from reliance on single regions toward diversified sourcing to maintain stability in a volatile environment.
Consumers should anticipate potential price fluctuations for pantry staples like sugar, coffee, and cocoa-based products. These commodity shifts often lead to higher costs at the grocery store as manufacturers pass on their increased procurement expenses.
The takeaway
Businesses and individuals are advised to monitor weather updates closely as the climate pattern continues to develop through early 2027. Proactive management of inventories and a flexible approach to product sourcing remain the most effective ways to mitigate long-term volatility.
Further reading
Learn more about the latest trends in the industry at the Agriculture section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Foodingredientsfirst.
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