Global Notebook Shipments Will Decline in 2027
Rising component costs for CPUs, DRAM, and SSDs are projected to dampen consumer demand and drive up retail prices.
Updated on Oct. 8, 2026 in Computers
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TrendForce forecasts that global notebook shipments will experience a decline in 2027. This downturn is driven by significant cost pressures from core components and competition for manufacturing capacity from AI server applications.
Why it matters
Manufacturers face a squeeze as CPUs, DRAM, and SSDs now account for 68% of the total bill of materials cost for a $900 notebook. These costs threaten to force price hikes that could lead to a high single-digit percentage contraction in total shipments.
Core components represent 68% of the BOM for a standard $900 notebook. Additionally, production capacity outside China has steadily decreased from 24% in 2025 to 21% in 2026, with estimates pointing toward a further drop below 20% in 2027.
The players
TrendForce
TrendForce is a global market intelligence firm that provides research and analysis on the technology industry.
The details
To manage rising component costs, brands may choose to absorb expenses, reduce device specifications, or shift production capacity back to China to optimize operational efficiency. Shipments in 2026 were bolstered by early procurement and improved CPU availability, pulling forward some demand that would have otherwise occurred later.
Timeline
2025: Global notebook production share outside China was 24%.
2026: Global notebook production share outside China was 21%.
Q3 2026: Core components made up 68% of bill of materials costs.
2027: Global notebook shipments are projected to decline.
H2 2027: NAND Flash supply constraints may potentially ease.
The Tech Race
This contraction follows the industry's recent prioritization of high-value AI server applications, which currently absorb significant advanced-process capacity. This shift mirrors historical cycles where hardware manufacturers move production back to China to protect margins as component costs rise.
Consumers should anticipate potential price increases for new laptops as manufacturers attempt to balance their margins against rising component costs. Buyers might also see fewer configuration options as companies look to simplify specifications to offset the expense of high-end DRAM and SSD parts.
The takeaway
If hardware costs continue to climb, consumers should consider purchasing devices sooner rather than waiting for future refresh cycles. Future availability may be impacted as brands focus on maintaining profitability through price adjustments and supply chain consolidation.
Further reading
For more on the current industry hardware climate, see Computers.
Source note: This article includes information reported by InfotechLead.
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