Cobalt Prices Have Fallen Amid Surplus Supply
Increased exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo drove a 31% drop in cobalt prices during the third quarter of 2026.
Updated on Oct. 1, 2026 in Electric Vehicles
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Global cobalt hydroxide prices fell 31% in the third quarter of 2026 as surging supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo outpaced weak downstream demand. By September 29, the commodity was trading at $39,140 per ton, down significantly from levels seen earlier in the year.
Why it matters
The price decline reflects a market imbalance where rising output, facilitated by new export quota systems, has swamped current manufacturing needs. This drop significantly lowers raw material costs for battery production, though the market may pivot to a deficit by year-end.
Cobalt prices dropped from $56,300 per ton on July 1 to $39,140 by September 29. The Democratic Republic of Congo has set a total export quota of 96,600 tons for 2026, building on 2025 production figures of 100,015 tons.
The players
Democratic Republic of Congo
This nation is the world's largest producer of cobalt and a critical source for global battery supply chains.
China
This country acts as the primary destination for cobalt exports and is a central hub for global battery manufacturing.
The details
Congolese authorities implemented a specific export quota system for producers that boosted shipments to key markets like China. This increased supply has pressured global markets, despite 2025 export levels sitting at 44,333 tons.
Timeline
In 2025, national cobalt production reached 100,015 tons.
During Q1 2026, cobalt reached nearly $58,000 per metric ton.
In Q2 2026, Congolese cobalt exports reached 24,086 tons.
On July 1, 2026, cobalt traded at about $56,300 per ton.
On September 29, 2026, cobalt traded at $39,140 per ton.
Roadmap
This surplus highlights the extreme volatility inherent in the transition to electric vehicles as global supply chains adjust to fluctuating mineral availability. Automakers must now balance the benefits of lower raw material costs against the risk of potential supply deficits if demand spikes later this year.
Falling raw cobalt prices may eventually lead to lower battery pack costs, potentially reducing the starting MSRP for future electric vehicle models. Buyers should monitor how these savings are passed down by manufacturers to remain competitive in an increasingly crowded EV market.
The takeaway
The surge in cobalt exports highlights the cyclical nature of mineral dependencies in the automotive industry. Manufacturers should prepare for future volatility as market projections suggest the current surplus could quickly reverse into a deficit.
Further reading
For more information on how mineral costs influence car production, visit the Electric Vehicles section.
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