T Rowe Price Adopted Climate Models for Emerging Markets
The investment manager is using new analytics to protect its $165 billion portfolio from El Nino-driven climate risks.
Updated on Sept. 27, 2026 in Investing
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T Rowe Price has integrated advanced climate analytics models developed at Johns Hopkins University to manage risks across its $165 billion emerging-market portfolio. These tools help the firm assess impacts from weather phenomena like the El Nino pattern that began forming in May 2026.
Why it matters
The investment manager aims to shield assets from potential crop failures and economic volatility triggered by unpredictable climate conditions. By integrating these specific models, the firm seeks to better guide investment decisions and potential lending clauses for vulnerable nations.
T Rowe Price manages a $165 billion portfolio of debt and equities across 12 emerging markets in regions including Latin America and South Asia. The firm oversees a total of $1.9 trillion in assets.
The players
T Rowe Price
This global investment management firm provides diverse strategies and oversees trillions in assets for institutional and individual clients.
Johns Hopkins University
This private research university is a leader in academic inquiry and has contributed significant advancements to scientific and climate-related research.
Moreton Capital Partners
Based in Wilmington, Delaware, this firm operates in the investment sector and has recently targeted capital toward weather-linked opportunities.
Robeco
This international asset management company focuses on sustainable investing and is developing internal benchmarks for climate adaptation.
The details
The investment firm employs global vector auto-regressive models paired with sea surface temperature analysis to gauge climate-related disruptions. Researchers utilized NASA foundation models and econometric studies to provide impact estimates for agricultural sectors in regions like Honduras and El Salvador.
Timeline
Two years ago researchers at Johns Hopkins began developing the climate analytics suite.
The El Nino weather phenomenon started forming in May 2026.
Moreton Capital Partners targeted $500 million for El Nino-linked bets in June 2026.
A super El Nino event is expected to occur in late 2026.
Robeco plans to roll out internal adaptation scores by the end of 2026.
Market Dynamics
The adoption of climate-resilient lending clauses follows the industry-wide move toward establishing formal adaptation benchmarks for emerging markets. As firms like Robeco work to quantify climate risks for the MSCI All Country World Index, custom modeling is becoming a standard feature of modern asset management.
Retail and institutional investors with exposure to emerging-market funds may see more stability in their portfolios as firms adopt predictive climate modeling. These measures aim to mitigate sudden valuation drops caused by agricultural volatility in key developing economies.
The takeaway
Advanced climate analytics are increasingly necessary for managing risks in regions susceptible to major weather phenomena like El Nino. Investors should monitor how these predictive models affect the long-term risk profiles of sovereign bonds in agricultural-dependent nations.
What happens next
Robeco is scheduled to release its internal climate adaptation scores for members of the MSCI All Country World Index by the end of 2026.
Further reading
For more information on how institutional investors navigate global financial markets, visit the Investing section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by The Business Times.
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