Climate Lab Projected 451,000 Heat Deaths from El Niño
The Climate Impact Lab expects a powerful El Niño event to drive severe global temperature spikes through early 2027.
Updated on Sept. 23, 2026 in Forecasts
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A new projection from the Climate Impact Lab warns that El Niño could cause 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between September 2026 and February 2027. This estimate reflects the compounding effects of long-term global warming and the anticipated peak of a very strong El Niño event.
Why it matters
The intersection of strengthening El Niño conditions and rising global temperatures is expected to significantly alter weather patterns, putting vulnerable populations at extreme health risk. Rising mortality projections in regions like the Sahel and South Asia highlight the potentially lethal consequences of current climate anomalies.
Researchers estimate 451,000 additional heat-related deaths globally as sea-surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific cross 3°C. The projections compare potential outcomes against an average year derived from data spanning 1996 to 2025.
The players
Climate Impact Lab
This research organization focuses on using climate science and data analysis to estimate the economic and health impacts of global warming.
World Meteorological Organization
An agency of the United Nations responsible for international cooperation on atmospheric science, climatology, and weather forecasting.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
This United States federal agency provides scientific information regarding the conditions of the oceans and the atmosphere.
The details
The analysis indicates the Sahel region faces the highest burden with 66,800 projected deaths, including 31,400 in Nigeria and 17,500 in Sudan. Meanwhile, combined fatalities in the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia are estimated at 19,400, while Indonesia and India face 19,300 and 15,800 respective additional deaths.
Timeline
September 3, 2026: The WMO confirmed El Niño was firmly established.
September 10, 2026: NOAA assessed a high probability of a strong event.
September 2026 - February 2027: The window for projected heat-related mortality.
End of 2026: El Niño is expected to reach its peak intensity.
2027: India and Pakistan face ongoing risks of rising heat mortality.
Seasonal Patterns
This projection aligns with established findings from the Climate Impact Lab heat-mortality modeling framework. It marks a significant update to how climate-driven cyclic weather patterns are expected to impact human health relative to historical baselines.
Residents in regions facing extreme mortality risks, particularly in the Sahel and South Asia, should prioritize heat-mitigation strategies during peak temperature months. Local authorities are expected to refine public safety advisories as the El Niño event nears its peak strength.
The takeaway
The projected 451,000 additional deaths demonstrate that the convergence of El Niño and global warming poses a severe, quantifiable threat to public health. Preparing for extreme temperature events remains a critical necessity for international aid agencies and local governments in the Global South.
Further reading
For more information on upcoming climate events, visit our Forecasts section.
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