IEA Has Raised 2026 Global Coal Demand Forecast
Rising natural gas prices have driven global coal consumption projections higher for 2026.
Updated on Sept. 25, 2026 in Oil and Gas
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The International Energy Agency has adjusted its outlook, now expecting global coal consumption to rise to 8.94 billion tons in 2026. This represents a 1.2 percent increase over the 8.84 billion tons consumed in 2025.
Why it matters
Geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has disrupted LNG shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, driving up natural gas prices. This shift has made coal-fired power generation more economically competitive, prompting nations to pivot away from gas.
Global coal demand is now expected to grow by 1.2 percent in 2026 to reach 8.94 billion tons. In 2025, coal-fired power generation alone accounted for 5.954 billion tons of consumption.
The players
International Energy Agency
The IEA is an intergovernmental organization that provides analysis, data, and recommendations on the global energy sector.
The details
Countries with dual gas and coal-fired capacity are increasingly favoring coal as natural gas costs climb due to regional supply constraints. Regulatory actions across various jurisdictions have further reinforced this global transition toward coal usage.
Timeline
Global coal consumption reached 8.84 billion tons in 2025.
The IEA initially projected a decline in 2026 coal demand in December 2025.
Global coal demand is expected to reach 8.94 billion tons in 2026.
Market Landscape
This adjustment reflects a departure from the previously projected decline in coal dependency as energy markets respond to volatile fuel costs. The shift highlights how geopolitical tensions can rapidly realign global energy portfolios and consolidate the market position of coal providers.
The transition toward coal-fired power as a cheaper alternative may influence retail electricity pricing for consumers and industrial clients in affected regions. Household budgets could be impacted if the reliance on coal leads to adjustments in local utility rate structures.
The takeaway
Energy security is increasingly tied to the flexibility of a nation's power infrastructure to switch between fuel sources. Consumers should monitor local energy policy updates, as shifting power generation methods can directly influence monthly utility costs.
Further reading
For more analysis on global energy trends, explore our Oil and Gas section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by KOMPAS.
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Should nations increase coal use when natural gas prices rise?
