Fitch Ratings Raised Oil and Gas Price Assumptions
The agency cited geopolitical risk and transit uncertainty for the upward revisions to its energy forecasts.
Updated on Sept. 25, 2026 in Oil and Gas
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Fitch Ratings has increased its price assumptions for oil and European gas in 2026 and 2027. The move follows renewed conflict in Iran and Saudi pipeline shutdowns that have tightened global energy markets.
Why it matters
The adjustments reflect growing concerns over geopolitical risk premiums and potential disruptions to critical maritime chokepoints. Uncertainty regarding the resolution of regional conflicts continues to create volatility in international energy supply chains.
Fitch Ratings set the 2027 Brent oil price assumption at $70 per barrel, while maintaining the 2026 outlook at $87 per barrel. Global oil inventories stood at 7.8 billion barrels in August as September prices averaged $100 per barrel.
The players
Fitch Ratings
This global credit rating agency provides financial data, research, and analysis to investors and government entities.
United Arab Emirates
The UAE is a significant oil-producing nation that has utilized alternative export pipelines to bypass maritime transit issues.
The details
Rising tensions in the Middle East have threatened supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 20% of the global LNG supply. While the UAE has successfully ramped output to 111% of pre-war levels using alternative routes, systemic risks to energy transit remain elevated.
Timeline
Oil prices declined to $70 per barrel in June 2026.
Global oil inventories reached 7.8 billion barrels in August 2026.
Brent oil prices maintained a $100 per barrel average throughout September 2026.
The global oil market is projected to shift into oversupply during the fourth quarter of 2026.
A potential peace agreement is assumed for the first quarter of 2027.
Market Landscape
These price adjustments follow the market pattern set by the 2026 Strait of Hormuz transit disruptions. The revised outlook marks a departure from earlier stability, extending the agency's baseline for energy costs amidst persistent regional instability.
Energy market volatility often correlates with higher fuel and heating costs for global consumers and businesses. Adjustments to these price forecasts suggest that households should prepare for continued instability in energy-related expenses over the coming years.
The takeaway
The upward revision of price forecasts signals that financial institutions expect geopolitical risks to remain a dominant factor in energy markets for the foreseeable future. Investors and consumers should account for the possibility of sustained high energy costs until production outside of the Middle East offsets regional supply disruptions.
Further reading
Learn more about market trends in the Oil and Gas section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Hellenic Shipping News.
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