RHB Research Projected Elevated Oil Prices
Oil prices are expected to remain high through 2026 as regional energy supplies struggle to recover from physical damage.
Updated on Sept. 24, 2026 in Oil and Gas
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RHB Research forecasts Brent crude oil prices will reach US$89 per barrel in 2026. This projection follows data showing Middle East refinery runs remain significantly below pre-war levels.
Why it matters
Physical capacity constraints are limiting the regional energy supply, preventing a full recovery. These infrastructure challenges mean that markets will remain tight despite easing geopolitical tensions.
Middle East refinery runs totaled 7.3 million barrels per day in August 2026, down from 9.9 million barrels per day before the war. Additionally, 17 percent of Qatar LNG capacity currently remains offline.
The players
RHB Research
This is a financial research firm that provides analysis on market trends and corporate performance across the energy sector.
The details
Damaged energy facilities throughout the region require extensive repairs and the replacement of critical equipment to return to operational status. Specifically, repairs to two damaged LNG trains in Qatar are estimated to take up to three years.
Timeline
August 2026: Middle East refinery runs hit 7.3 million barrels per day.
Q2 2026: Companies under coverage reported earnings results.
Q4 2026: The recovery of regional energy supply is expected to begin.
Q2 2027: Energy throughput is projected to return to pre-war levels.
Next three years: Estimated duration required to complete Qatar LNG train repairs.
Market Landscape
This forecast follows a pattern set by RHB Research energy market coverage to evaluate how physical infrastructure damage dictates long-term commodity pricing. The report highlights how regional supply constraints continue to impact global market competition.
Consumers and businesses should prepare for sustained energy price volatility as regional supply remains limited. Companies failing to meet earnings expectations may face increased pressure from shareholders regarding operational efficiency.
The takeaway
Energy markets remain hypersensitive to infrastructure integrity rather than just political developments. Investors should focus on the multi-year repair timelines for damaged facilities as the primary indicator for future price stabilization.
Further reading
For more on the current state of energy production, see our coverage on Oil and Gas.
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