South African Online Retail Forecast to Hit R159 Billion

The national e-commerce market is projected to reach a 10% share of total retail turnover by 2026.

Updated on Oct. 30, 2026 in Retail

Isometric editorial illustration of stacked cardboard shipping boxes, representing the growth of the South African e-commerce sector. — South Africa's online retail market is projected to reach R159 billion by 2026, driven by a 22.5% annual growth rate. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

Live Poll

Do you find that online stores make it easy for everyone to complete a purchase?

South Africa's online retail sector is set for significant expansion, with forecasts predicting the market will reach R159 billion by 2026. This growth represents an annual rate of 22.5%, capturing 10% of the country's total retail turnover.

Why it matters

While digital adoption grows, barriers such as delivery costs, data expenses, and payment concerns continue to hinder broader consumer participation in the online market. Addressing these friction points is essential for retailers hoping to capitalise on the segment's rapid projected growth.

The market projection is based on 23,910 consumer interviews conducted in 2025. Currently, 79.1% of South African adults use the internet, though only 34.2% engage in online shopping.

The details

Retailers are increasingly prioritising user experience by implementing guest checkout options and displaying delivery charges before the final payment screen. Despite the rise of mobile commerce, browsers remain the preferred tool for purchases, outpacing app usage in 42 of the 48 measured retail categories.

23,910 consumer interviews were conducted throughout 2025.
The online retail market is forecast to hit its R159 billion valuation in 2026.
Retailers are currently preparing for the November 2026 Black Friday shopping season.

Market Landscape

The current growth trajectory aligns with the documented trend of browser-based shopping dominance over dedicated applications across most retail categories. This shift forces retailers to focus on mobile-friendly web optimisation to remain competitive as the industry consolidates.

Shoppers can expect a more streamlined experience as retailers adopt guest checkouts to remove barriers to entry. However, persistent delivery costs and data expenses remain factors that will continue to impact individual household budgets during major sales periods.

The takeaway

Consumers should compare delivery charges and verify minimum-order requirements before checking out to manage costs effectively. Retailers who successfully reduce friction in the checkout process are likely to capture a larger share of the growing online demographic.