Ecologists Question Spekboom Carbon Claims in South Africa

Experts argue that restoration projects are overstating the plant's actual capacity to serve as a climate solution.

Updated on Oct. 27, 2026 in Botany

Bold flat-color editorial illustration depicting a single spekboom plant, emphasizing the ecological challenges of large-scale carbon restoration projects. — Ecologists have raised concerns that South African spekboom restoration projects are overstating the plant's capacity to serve as a reliable carbon-mitigation solution. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

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Ecologists have raised concerns that spekboom restoration projects in South Africa are inflating expectations regarding their climate-change mitigation potential. These warnings follow significant international investment into efforts to revive degraded thicket areas across the region.

Why it matters

Carbon finance has become a vital funding source for restoration on a scale that would otherwise be difficult to achieve, but there is growing concern that these projects do not account for variable survival rates. Degraded thicket often fails to regenerate naturally, necessitating careful management of these large-scale investments.

Established spekboom stands sequester between 1.4 to 4.5 tonnes of carbon per hectare annually, with intact thicket capable of storing 200 tonnes per hectare. However, experimental plots have recorded survival rates as low as zero in some conditions.

The players

World Bank

This international financial institution provides loans and grants to the governments of low- and middle-income countries for the purpose of pursuing capital projects.

Amazon

This multinational technology company has committed to purchasing carbon-removal credits from large-scale restoration projects over a period exceeding ten years.

Imperative Global Solutions

This organisation manages large-scale restoration initiatives with a goal of restoring 100,000 hectares of land in South Africa.

The details

Imperative Global Solutions aims to restore 100,000 hectares over the next four to five years, supported by a World Bank bond and carbon-credit purchase agreements with Amazon. While the strategy relies on planting cuttings to provide shade and rebuild soil through leaf litter, the inconsistent survival rates highlight potential gaps in the projected environmental impact.

By 2000, approximately 45% of the original spekboom thicket had been altered.
Researchers from Nelson Mandela and Stellenbosch Universities published their findings in 2021.
A study regarding 26 deforestation projects appeared in Science in 2023.
Researchers from Oxford and Pennsylvania reviewed various carbon-offset schemes in 2025.
The World Bank priced a $120-million bond in April 2026.

The Big Picture

This critique challenges the standard assumptions surrounding the carbon sequestration estimates of the Albany thicket biome. By comparing theoretical carbon storage against observed survival data, the findings mark a departure from the optimistic models that currently drive international carbon finance.

The intended creation of 11,000 jobs through these restoration projects could provide significant economic stimulation for local communities in the Eastern Cape. However, if planting success remains inconsistent, the long-term viability of these positions and the promised environmental benefits may be subject to future adjustments.

The takeaway

Restoration efforts require more rigorous local data rather than relying solely on global carbon-sequestration averages. For those involved in environmental projects, focusing on site-specific survival rates is essential for ensuring long-term success.