South Africa Faces Gas Supply Cliff by 2028
Minister Godongwana warns that regulatory and constitutional hurdles hinder crucial offshore energy investments.
Updated on Oct. 24, 2026 in Oil and Gas
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Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana has highlighted that complex regulatory and constitutional challenges are stalling critical gas exploration projects in South Africa. These delays risk leaving the nation facing a potential gas supply cliff by mid-2028 as imports from Mozambique are set to conclude.
Why it matters
The investment uncertainty is compounded by a long and costly approval process that pushes companies to seek opportunities elsewhere. With the anticipated loss of pipeline supplies from Mozambique, the nation faces an urgent need to streamline its energy sector to ensure long-term stability.
Regulatory approvals for offshore exploration take up to five years in South Africa, compared to just three to nine months in competing African jurisdictions. This disparity contributed to the withdrawal of TotalEnergies from the Block 11B/12B project in July 2024.
The players
Enoch Godongwana
He serves as the Minister of Finance for South Africa and is responsible for addressing the country's economic and investment challenges.
TotalEnergies
A global multi-energy company that previously held interests in offshore gas exploration in South Africa.
Offshore Petroleum Association of South Africa
An industry body representing companies engaged in oil and gas exploration in the region.
The details
Investors are frequently met with successive legal challenges and environmental appeals that delay projects and weaken commercial viability. Although TotalEnergies successfully identified gas at the Brulpadda and Luiperd wells in 2019 and 2020, the company ultimately exited the offshore block due to these systemic obstacles.
Timeline
TotalEnergies discovered gas at the Brulpadda well in 2019.
TotalEnergies discovered gas at the Luiperd well in 2020.
TotalEnergies announced its withdrawal from Block 11B/12B in July 2024.
Industry representatives highlighted regulatory delays in June 2025.
Gas supplies from Mozambique are expected to end by mid-2028.
Market Landscape
South Africa is currently struggling to maintain energy security against the backdrop of the projected mid-2028 end of Pande and Temane gas pipeline supplies. This failure to secure domestic alternatives positions the country at a disadvantage compared to neighbouring nations that are successfully attracting exploration capital.
The potential end of gas supplies by 2028 could lead to significant energy price volatility and shortages for domestic consumers. These regulatory delays ultimately threaten to increase the cost of living by limiting the availability of affordable, locally sourced energy.
The takeaway
South Africa must urgently address the five-year backlog in exploration approvals to prevent a future energy deficit. Streamlining legal and regulatory processes will be essential to retain international investors and secure domestic gas production before current supply sources expire.
Further reading
For more on the national energy sector, visit the Oil and Gas section.
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Should the government prioritize streamlining regulations to accelerate major economic and infrastructure projects?
