South Africa Issues El Niño Weather Advisory
The Department of Agriculture warns of drier conditions following the 2026 seasonal weather forecast.
Updated on Oct. 15, 2026 in Current Conditions
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On 31 August 2026, the Department of Agriculture issued an advisory regarding the strong El Niño state affecting South Africa. The forecast anticipates lower than normal rainfall through the 2026/27 summer season.
Why it matters
The persistence of El Niño conditions poses a significant risk to future agricultural output and water security across the country. Farmers are urged to adopt mitigation strategies to protect livelihoods against the expected moisture deficit.
Official forecasts indicate a strong El Niño state expected to persist until the end of the 2026/27 summer season. Meanwhile, insurance for Blended Finance Scheme loans is set at 6% of the approved total.
The players
Department of Agriculture
The national government entity responsible for the development and regulation of the agricultural sector in South Africa.
The details
The government is promoting conservation agriculture, water management, and precision farming to mitigate weather-related risks. Farmers are advised to follow disaster management protocols outlined in Section 20 of the Disaster Management Act of 2015 to ensure operational stability.
Timeline
31 August 2026: Seasonal weather forecast issued
2025/26 summer season: Above-normal rainfall was received
2026/27 summer season: El Niño conditions expected to persist
Early 2027: Maize supply buffer availability
Seasonal Patterns
The current advisory follows the disaster management protocols established by the Disaster Management Act of 2015. This strategic intervention marks a departure from reactive crisis management toward systematic risk reduction during prolonged climate cycles.
Farmers should prioritise conservation agriculture and water management to mitigate potential losses from predicted low rainfall. Adherence to the 6% insurance requirement for the Blended Finance Scheme is also essential to safeguard farm finances.
The takeaway
While the 2026 maize harvest saw a 4.5% increase, supply buffers remain vital as the country enters a new dry cycle. Producers are encouraged to leverage current carry-over stocks to bridge potential gaps in early 2027.
Further reading
For more information on national weather developments, visit the Current Conditions page.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Pmg.
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