Renewables to Overtake Thermal Capacity by 2035

South Africa is set to shift its national energy mix away from traditional coal generation over the next decade.

Updated on Oct. 15, 2026 in Energy

Renewables to Overtake Thermal Capacity by 2035

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Should nations prioritize replacing coal capacity with renewable energy to secure their future power needs?

Renewable energy capacity is projected to surpass thermal generation in South Africa by 2035. This transition will see wind and solar power replace retiring coal capacity.

Why it matters

The shift represents a fundamental change in the national power market as it moves from a state-led system to a competitive model. Private developers are increasingly building renewable projects to supply the grid through bilateral trading.

Renewable technologies are forecast to overtake thermal generation in the national capacity mix by 2035. This projection accounts for the ongoing transition toward private development in the electricity sector.

The details

Private developers are actively building renewable energy projects to supply the national grid through mechanisms like electricity wheeling and bilateral trading. These efforts are designed to ensure that the power sector can successfully integrate more sustainable sources as coal plants reach their end of life.

Renewable capacity is expected to exceed thermal capacity by the year 2035.

The Big Picture

This transition follows the structural goals set by the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) energy policy framework. The projection marks a significant move away from legacy systems, demonstrating how national policy guides the integration of private renewable energy projects.

The transition could lead to more competitive electricity pricing as private developers enter the market through bilateral trading. Households and businesses may eventually see a more reliable grid as new renewable capacity replaces aging coal infrastructure.

The takeaway

The move toward renewable energy highlights a shift toward a decentralised, competitive power market in South Africa. Readers should prepare for a future where corporate and private energy generation plays a significant role in meeting national demand.