Matt LaFleur Named Favorite for NFL Firing
Betting markets indicate a 64% probability of the Green Bay Packers head coach departing by early 2027.
Updated on Sept. 22, 2026 in Football
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Oddsmakers at Kalshi have identified Matt LaFleur as the NFL coach most likely to be fired. Current market data assigns him a 64% chance of departure before February 15, 2027.
Why it matters
The Packers have struggled to maintain momentum, failing to secure a playoff seed higher than seventh since 2021. Additionally, the team is currently on pace to set league records for penalties and penalty yardage.
Matt LaFleur currently maintains a 1-5 record in his last six playoff games and a 39-34-1 overall record since 2021. The Green Bay Packers organization possesses $600 million in cash reserves to address potential contract termination costs.
The players
Matt LaFleur
He is the head coach of the Green Bay Packers currently facing increased scrutiny from betting markets.
Nick Sirianni
He is the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles who currently holds a 60% probability of being fired.
Dan Quinn
He is the head coach of the Washington Commanders who holds a 50% chance of departure in betting markets.
Jim Harbaugh
He serves as the head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers and shares a 50% firing probability with other league coaches.
Aaron Glenn
He is a current NFL head coach who is listed alongside other candidates with a 50% firing probability.
The details
LaFleur, who has served as head coach for eight seasons, saw his team record a 41-13 mark during his first three years before a noticeable performance decline began in 2021. Despite recent high-stakes games, including a victory against the New York Jets, market sentiment remains focused on the coach's long-term viability.
Timeline
The Packers reached the NFC Championship Game in 2019-2020.
The team's performance decline began in 2021.
The Packers lost the NFC Wild Card game in 2025.
Green Bay defeated the New York Jets on September 20, 2026.
The betting market deadline for coach departure is February 15, 2027.
Season Trajectory
This betting assessment follows the pattern set by the 2025 NFC Wild Card loss, which underscored the team's ongoing post-season challenges. The current market outlook reflects a significant departure from the success of the head coach's initial three-season tenure.
The potential coaching change could significantly alter the Packers' future roster construction and draft positioning strategy. Packers fans and fantasy managers should monitor the team's penalty rates, as they remain on pace to set negative NFL records.
The takeaway
While betting markets reflect current volatility, high cash reserves suggest the Packers have significant flexibility to navigate a potential transition. Fans should look for improvements in penalty discipline as a key indicator of internal team control in the coming weeks.
Further reading
For more on coaching changes and team news, visit Football.
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