Washington Apple Group Discontinued Crop Forecasts

The association aims to reduce market uncertainty by ending its traditional apple crop and storage reporting cycle.

Updated on Sept. 20, 2026 in Agriculture

Isometric editorial illustration of a wooden harvest bin filled with red apples in an orchard, representing agricultural supply chain adjustments. — The Washington State Tree Fruit Association will stop issuing annual August apple crop forecasts to reduce market volatility and improve supply chain accuracy. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

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The Washington State Tree Fruit Association has voted to stop producing its annual August 1 apple crop forecast and its October and November storage reports. The organization decided to end these disclosures due to the difficulty of predicting harvest yields amid volatile variables like labor supply and weather.

Why it matters

Early estimates have historically created a false sense of certainty in the supply chain, leading to repercussions when actual production deviates from projections. By ending these reports, the association hopes to avoid the issues caused by inaccurate data in a market where growers decide to harvest based on real-time pricing and labor costs.

Washington annually produces more than 100 million boxes of apples, a figure that has faced a 5% to 7% variance between past forecasts and actual production. Meanwhile, the USDA currently predicts a 7% smaller apple harvest nationally for the season.

The players

Washington State Tree Fruit Association

This is the primary trade organization representing apple growers in the region and managing industry reporting standards.

The details

The association previously relied on member surveys to estimate harvest amounts, but unpredictable factors including market conditions often rendered these guesses unreliable. Moving forward, the group will pivot to a more consolidated reporting schedule, starting with an initial crop report set for December 1.

August 1 marked the traditional date for the association to release its apple crop forecast.
September 20, 2026, is the date of the announcement regarding the discontinuation of reports.
November 2026 is when apple harvesting typically concludes in Washington state.
December 1, 2026, is the scheduled release date for the association's first crop report.

Market Landscape

The decision to cease independent forecasting marks a departure from the historical 5% to 7% variance between Washington state apple forecasts and final production. This move signals a broader shift in the agriculture sector toward managing market expectations by reducing reliance on speculative survey data.

Local apple growers and market participants will no longer have access to the association's August harvest forecasts or fall storage reports. This change requires buyers and distributors to adjust their supply chain strategies, as they can no longer rely on these specific industry estimates.

The takeaway

Reliable data is essential for managing supply chains, but the industry has determined that inaccurate predictions create more harm than transparency. Growers and businesses should prepare for a transition to new reporting formats as the association shifts its data strategy.