Scott Wins Vermont Governor Race Over Polls
Republican Phil Scott defeated Democrat Amanda Janoo by seven points, despite pre-election polls showing her ahead.
Updated on Nov. 7, 2026 in Elections
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Phil Scott defeated Amanda Janoo in the Vermont governor's election by seven points. UNH Survey Center pre-election polls had shown Janoo leading, raising questions about polling methodology.
Why it matters
The poll miss is the third straight election in which UNH underestimated Scott's support, prompting scrutiny of how pollsters reach likely voters. Accurate polling depends on surveying a representative cross-section of who actually turns out, and that assumption is now under review.
UNH's September poll projected Janoo winning by six points and its final poll by eight points, against Scott's actual seven-point victory. The Republican Governors Association spent about one million dollars in Vermont on Scott's behalf, and the post-mortem has not yet explained the gap.
The players
UNH Survey Center
The University of New Hampshire's polling operation, which surveys voters in New England and conducted the pre-election polls that missed the Vermont result.
Phil Scott
The Republican governor of Vermont who won re-election, having previously outperformed polling expectations in two earlier races.
Amanda Janoo
The Democratic candidate for Vermont governor who had been leading in pre-election polls before losing to Scott.
Republican Governors Association
The national organization of Republican governors that spent about one million dollars in Vermont supporting Scott's campaign.
The details
UNH and other pollsters use a preselected panel of participants rather than phone calls, weighted to match Vermont's population distribution. The survey overestimated younger voter turnout and underestimated turnout among voters over 65, though it accurately predicted the lieutenant governor, congressional, and constitutional amendment outcomes.
Timeline
September 2026: UNH's first poll showed Janoo ahead 49% to 43%.
November 3, 2026: Election Day, when Scott defeated Janoo by seven points.
November 4, 2026: A second UNH poll was released showing Janoo ahead 51% to 43%.
Political Context
This is the third consecutive election in which UNH underestimated Scott's support in Vermont, extending a documented pattern rather than a single miss. The result puts the methodology of preselected-panel polling under renewed scrutiny among the pollsters who use it.
Vermont voters now have a governor whose support ran ahead of public polling, which matters for anyone relying on published surveys to gauge the state's races. Readers should treat single-pollster leads as less certain than the headline margins suggest.
The takeaway
Polls are estimates built on assumptions about who will vote, and when those assumptions fail, the margin can flip. Checking whether a poll's sample reflects likely turnout helps readers weigh its headline numbers.
Further reading
For more on how these contests are decided, see Vermont Elections.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Wcax.
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