Houston Falls 7 Inches Behind Normal Rainfall

Drought now covers nearly all of Southeast Texas as burn bans spread across counties along and south of Interstate 10.

Updated on Nov. 6, 2026 in Current Conditions

Bold flat-color editorial illustration of cracked dry earth under a pale sky with a single dead tree on the horizon, evoking drought conditions. — Houston is about 7 inches behind normal rainfall as drought now covers nearly all of Southeast Texas and burn bans spread across counties south of Interstate 10. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

Live Poll

Are you concerned about drought and fire risk in your area this winter?

Houston is about 7 inches behind normal year-to-date rainfall, and drought or unusually dry conditions cover nearly all of Southeast Texas. Burn bans are in effect across most counties along and south of Interstate 10, including unincorporated Harris County.

Why it matters

The deficit affects residents, landowners and local officials as dry conditions raise fire risk across the Houston area. Seasonal outlooks suggest a wetter pattern may develop, but the timing of relief remains uncertain.

Bush Intercontinental Airport has recorded 37.7 inches of rain year-to-date, while Houston remains about 7 inches below normal. Severe drought affects parts of Brazoria, Galveston and Chambers counties, and the extent of winter improvement is still unknown.

The players

U.S. Drought Monitor

A joint federal and academic drought monitoring program that publishes weekly maps tracking drought conditions across the United States.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

The U.S. federal agency whose Climate Prediction Center issues seasonal outlooks, including the winter outlook favoring above-average precipitation across the South.

The details

The U.S. Drought Monitor released its latest drought data on Thursday, showing dry or drought conditions across nearly all of Southeast Texas. Burn bans now cover most counties along and south of Interstate 10, including unincorporated Harris County.

1951: Reliable El Niño fall season records used in the analysis begin.
1987: A dry fall was followed by below-normal winter rainfall.
1991-92: An exceptionally wet winter occurred in Houston's history.
Thursday: The U.S. Drought Monitor released its latest drought data.

Seasonal Patterns

Of 24 El Niño fall seasons since 1951, 14 had below-normal rainfall, and eight strong or very strong El Niño falls were followed by winters averaging about 12.8 inches of rain. The current dry fall fits within this historical pattern, though a strong El Niño event now developing in the eastern Pacific could shift the regional outcome.

Residents in Harris County and along Interstate 10 should follow the burn bans now in effect, which prohibit outdoor burning in most counties. Homeowners in dry areas should avoid activities that create sparks and monitor local fire department notices as conditions evolve.

The takeaway

Houston's dry fall follows a historical El Niño pattern, but the upcoming winter could bring relief if forecasts for wetter conditions hold. Residents should treat the current burn bans as active restrictions until local officials lift them.