Study Projects $2.3 Billion in North Texas Flood Damage
A preliminary regional study estimates western North Texas could face $2.3 billion in additional flood damage over the next 50 years.
Updated on Nov. 6, 2026 in Forecasts
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The North Central Texas Council of Governments presented preliminary findings from its Integrated Transportation and Stormwater Infrastructure Study, estimating $2.3 billion in additional flood damage across the study's western subarea from 2027 to 2076. Nine of 219 identified projects are being submitted for state funding totaling $160.2 million.
Why it matters
Projected growth in paved surfaces and rising floodwater levels in a 500-year storm put nearly 900 existing homes at risk, shaping how Texas allocates stormwater and transportation investment. The findings tie land-use growth directly to flood exposure across eight counties.
The estimate counts existing and future buildings, their contents, vehicles, and displacement costs across the western subarea. Paved and developed surfaces are projected to rise from 6.4 percent of land in 2020 to 35.2 percent by 2070.
The players
North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG)
The regional planning body for the Dallas-Fort Worth area that coordinates transportation and infrastructure planning for local governments.
Texas General Land Office
The Texas state agency that administers disaster recovery and mitigation funding, to which the draft report is due.
The details
The Texas Stormwater Infrastructure study, launched in 2023, examines how growth, transportation infrastructure, and stormwater systems interact across eight North Texas counties. Staff have held nearly 100 community, subarea, and partner coordination meetings, and the study has evaluated 219 potential projects with 16 partners, 85 cities, and eight counties involved.
Timeline
2023: The TSI Study was launched.
5 November 2026: Preliminary findings were presented to the Regional Transportation Council.
Thursday 19 November 2026: Preliminary results go to the NCTCOG Executive Board.
30 November 2026: A draft report is due to the General Land Office.
Regional Context
Nine projects totaling $160.2 million are being submitted to the Texas General Land Office for state mitigation funding. The study's findings on land-use growth and stormwater exposure are being presented as the basis for those requests.
Residents in the study area, particularly near Mary's Creek and the Upper Clear Fork Trinity River, should review whether their homes fall within projected floodwater rise zones. Local governments and community members can follow the study's public meetings and proposed project list as they move toward state funding decisions.
The takeaway
Population growth and expanding paved surfaces are raising flood exposure across North Texas, making land-use and stormwater planning a central question for the region's infrastructure budgets. The nine proposed projects offer one measurable test of whether state funding can offset those risks.
What happens next
The draft report is due to the General Land Office on 30 November 2026, and preliminary results go to the NCTCOG Executive Board on 19 November 2026.
Further reading
For related coverage, see Forecasts in our Weather and Disaster section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Traffic Technology Today.
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