James Talarico Leads Ken Paxton in New Texas Poll
A recent CNN/SRSS survey shows the Democratic challenger holding a six-point lead over the Republican nominee.
Updated on Oct. 29, 2026 in Elections
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A new CNN/SRSS poll shows Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton by six percentage points in Texas. The survey indicates that Talarico maintains significant support among the electorate as his opponent faces negative approval ratings.
Why it matters
The survey results highlight a shift in the competitive landscape of the Texas Senate race, driven largely by the historically low net approval rating of the GOP nominee. Talarico's advantage, particularly among independent voters, underscores the challenges facing the Republican ticket in this cycle.
The CNN/SRSS poll, conducted from October 20-27, 2026, reports Talarico leads Paxton by 6 points with 49% to 43% support. The findings include a 21-point lead for Talarico among independent voters and have a margin of error of 4.2%.
The players
James Talarico
He is the Democratic candidate for the United States Senate in Texas.
Ken Paxton
He is the Republican candidate for the United States Senate in Texas.
Donald Trump
He is the current President of the United States.
The details
Talarico currently holds a 21-point lead among independent voters, reflecting a potential shift in voting patterns compared to previous electoral cycles. Ken Paxton's net approval rating sits at negative 29 points, a figure that appears to correlate with the current polling deficit for the Republican candidate.
Timeline
October 20-27, 2026, served as the fielding period for the CNN/SRSS poll.
The year 1988 marks the last time a Democrat held a similar poll lead in Texas.
Donald Trump maintained his net approval rating in 2018 during his first term.
Political Context
This polling result reflects a notable departure from recent election cycles, mirroring levels of Democratic support not seen since 1988. Opponents maintain that the snapshot of current polling data does not account for final get-out-the-vote efforts or late-stage campaign shifts.
This race has potential implications for the balance of power in the Senate, which may directly influence federal legislative priorities and state-specific funding. Residents should anticipate increased campaign advertising and outreach as candidates push to finalize support before the election.
The takeaway
Voters should be aware that while polling snapshots provide insight into current sentiment, they are subject to change as campaign strategies evolve. Evaluating candidate platforms and public records remains the most effective way for citizens to prepare for the upcoming election.
Further reading
For more on the current state of the race, visit the Texas Elections page.
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