Texas Early Voting Shows Democratic Shift
In-person primary voters in two major Texas counties show a marked partisan shift compared to 2022 midterm turnout.
Updated on Oct. 20, 2026 in Political Parties
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Early voting analysis from Collin and Denton counties reveals a 19.2-point shift toward Democratic primary voters. This measurement is based on a comparison to the first day of in-person early voting during the 2022 midterm elections.
Why it matters
The shift in voter composition in these north-Dallas counties signals a potential change in the partisan landscape of the region. This data is being closely watched as a bellwether for candidates like James Talarico and Ken Paxton.
The analysis indicates a 19.2-point swing in partisan voter makeup compared to the 2022 midterm election cycle. Democrats have failed to secure a victory in any statewide race in Texas for more than three decades.
The players
James Talarico
James Talarico is a Texas state legislator whose electoral prospects are expected to be favored by the recent increase in Democratic voter turnout.
Ken Paxton
Ken Paxton is a prominent Texas official whose electoral outlook is expected to be challenged by the shift toward Democratic primary voters.
Donald Trump
Donald Trump is the current President of the United States who won Collin and Denton counties by double digits during the 2024 election.
The details
The analysis examined the previous partisan primary participation of voters who cast ballots on the first day of in-person early voting. While Donald Trump carried both Collin and Denton counties by double digits in 2024, the current influx of Democratic voters could alter the expected performance of regional candidates.
Timeline
- 2026-10-20
The analysis of the first day of early voting was released.
2022: Baseline year used for early voting comparison.
2024: Year when Donald Trump carried Collin and Denton counties.
Political Context
Opponents of this shift argue that early turnout data in just two counties is insufficient to challenge the three-decade drought of statewide Democratic victories in Texas. Critics maintain that these localized results do not represent a broader, sustainable trend capable of flipping statewide partisan control.
Residents in North Texas may see an increase in campaign activity and outreach as candidates respond to changing voter data. The results could influence local policy debates and resource allocation for campaigns across Collin and Denton counties.
The takeaway
Voter data from the first day of early voting reveals a notable partisan shift in North Texas that defies recent historical trends. Readers should note that while shifts in primary turnout can signal energy for specific candidates, they do not guarantee final election results.
Further reading
For more on shifts in the state's electorate, read our coverage of Political Parties.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Raw Story.
Live Poll
Do you believe early voting trends in your state indicate a significant shift in political competitiveness?
