El Niño Advisory Signals Milder South Dakota Winter
The Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Advisory, with a strong to very strong event projected for winter 2026 to 2027.
Updated on Nov. 10, 2026 in Forecasts
Live Poll
Do you expect this winter in your area to be milder than usual?
The Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Advisory in October 2026 and forecasts a strong to very strong El Niño event this winter. South Dakota is generally favored to have a milder and drier winter during an El Niño year.
Why it matters
Warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean shift trade winds and affect weather around the world, including winter conditions across South Dakota. Past El Niño winters have produced a wide range of snowfall totals in the state.
Aberdeen recorded just over 8 1/2 inches of snow in the 2023 to 2024 El Niño winter, the 15th-lowest total on record for Meteorological Winter, while Sioux Falls recorded 39 inches during the 2015 to 2016 El Niño winter. Whether the coming winter will follow either pattern has not been determined.
The players
Climate Prediction Center
The Climate Prediction Center is a division of the National Weather Service that issues official seasonal outlooks and advisories for the United States.
The details
The Climate Prediction Center issued its El Niño Advisory in October 2026 and projects a strong to very strong event for winter 2026 to 2027. The advisory is based on above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
Timeline
2015 to 2016: El Niño winter in which Sioux Falls received 39 inches of snow.
2023 to 2024: El Niño winter in which Aberdeen received 8 1/2 inches of snow.
October 2026: Climate Prediction Center issues El Niño Advisory.
Winter 2026 to 2027: Projected strong to very strong El Niño winter.
Big Picture
The projected event is measured against the 2015 to 2016 El Niño winter, when Sioux Falls received 39 inches of snow, showing that strong El Niño years have not always meant mild South Dakota winters. The 2023 to 2024 El Niño winter, with Aberdeen's 8 1/2 inches, provides a contrasting recent example.
A milder and drier winter is generally favored for South Dakota during El Niño years, which could mean lower heating demand and fewer snow-removal events. Residents should keep in mind that past El Niño winters have produced very different snowfall totals.
The takeaway
A strong El Niño forecast does not guarantee a mild winter, as the 2015 to 2016 and 2023 to 2024 examples show very different snowfall outcomes for the region. Checking the latest seasonal outlooks as winter approaches gives the most current picture.
Further reading
For more context on seasonal outlooks, explore Forecasts coverage for South Dakota.
Live Poll
Do you expect this winter in your area to be milder than usual?
