Jackley Leads Gronli in South Dakota House Race Poll

A new survey shows Marty Jackley with a 28-point lead over opponent Nikki Gronli among South Dakota voters.

Updated on Oct. 21, 2026 in Elections

Bold flat-color editorial illustration depicting a solitary fence post on the plains, reflecting the broad scale of South Dakota's political landscape. — Marty Jackley leads Nikki Gronli 60% to 32% in a new poll for South Dakota's U.S. House race, highlighting a significant visibility gap. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

Live Poll

Should name recognition be a primary factor when you decide who to support for Congress?

Marty Jackley leads Nikki Gronli 60% to 32% in a recent poll of 500 likely voters for the South Dakota US House race. The survey reveals a significant gap in name recognition, as 61% of likely voters do not recognize Gronli.

Why it matters

The poll highlights a struggle for the Gronli campaign to build visibility, with a majority of voters unfamiliar with the candidate. Increasing name recognition is a primary objective as the election approaches.

The poll surveyed 500 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. While independents are nearly split between the candidates, 10% of that demographic remains undecided.

The players

Marty Jackley

Marty Jackley is a candidate currently leading in the polling for the South Dakota US House seat.

Nikki Gronli

Nikki Gronli is the candidate seeking the South Dakota US House seat who is currently trailing in voter recognition.

The details

Although the candidates are tied at 45% among 18-34 year-olds, Gronli trails significantly in broader support despite finding nearly equal backing from independents. Gronli aims to bridge this gap by focusing her remaining campaign efforts on the Sioux Falls metro area.

The poll was conducted from Oct. 12-14, 2026.
The general election is scheduled for Nov. 3, 2026.

Political Context

Opponents often argue that polling conducted this close to an election fails to capture the full impact of late-cycle advertising and grassroots mobilization. Critics may also point to the high number of undecided independent voters as evidence that the race remains fluid despite the current spread.

This polling indicates a clear divide in voter awareness that will likely result in a heavy influx of political advertising as the election date nears. Residents should expect increased campaign visibility and outreach efforts in the final weeks before voting.

The takeaway

Voters should be prepared for a surge in campaign messaging as candidates attempt to define their platforms before Election Day. Monitoring candidate outreach in the Sioux Falls metro area may provide a better sense of which campaign strategies are gaining traction.

What happens next

Nikki Gronli plans to concentrate her campaign activities in the Sioux Falls area during the final two weeks leading up to the Nov. 3, 2026 general election.