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South Carolina

Final Polls Show Tight South Carolina Senate Race

Two pre-election surveys released Monday point to a close Senate contest and a comfortable lead for Republicans in the governor's race.

Updated on Nov. 2, 2026 in Elections

Bold flat-color editorial illustration of a simplified state capitol dome over a pine treeline in deep red, cream, and navy, evoking a close statewide election.
Republican Darline Graham Nordone and Democrat Annie Andrews are locked in a near tie in South Carolina's U.S. Senate race, according to final polls released Monday. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

Live Poll

Do you plan to vote in South Carolina's Senate race on Tuesday?

Rick Quinn and Robert Cahaly released final pre-election polls of South Carolina's U.S. Senate and governor races on Monday, November 2, 2026. Quinn's poll put Democrat Annie Andrews at 46.2% and Republican Darline Graham Nordone at 44.6%, while Cahaly's showed Nordone ahead at 47.5% to Andrews' 45.5%.

Why it matters

The two polls diverge on the Senate race, leaving its outcome uncertain heading into election day. Democrats have not won a statewide race in South Carolina since 2006, so a competitive Senate contest is notable for the state.

Quinn's governor-race poll put Republican Alan Wilson at 50.6% to Democrat Jermaine Johnson's 42.3%, while Cahaly's showed Wilson at 54.1% and Johnson at 39.1%. Both polls leave the Senate race within the margin of error, and the final turnout mix remains unknown.

The players

Rick Quinn

Rick Quinn is the pollster who released the final pre-election survey of South Carolina's Senate and governor races.

Robert Cahaly

Robert Cahaly is a pollster who released a separate final pre-election survey of the same South Carolina races.

Donald Trump

Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, who made two campaign visits to South Carolina in the closing weeks of the race.

The details

Quinn surveyed 600 likely voters on October 30, 2026, and Cahaly surveyed 1,091 respondents between October 31 and November 1. More than 1 million early votes were cast in South Carolina over the past two weeks, with an estimated 27% from black voters, and Donald Trump made two visits to the state in the closing weeks.

Timeline

  1. October 30, 2026: Quinn surveys 600 likely voters.

  2. October 31 to November 1, 2026: Cahaly surveys 1,091 respondents.

  3. November 2, 2026: Quinn and Cahaly release final poll results.

  4. November 3, 2026: South Carolina election day.

Political Context

Democrats have not won a statewide race in South Carolina since 2006, a streak that the close Senate polling now puts under test. Republicans have held the state's statewide offices through that period, so the current polls show how much that pattern may or may not hold.

For South Carolina voters, the Senate race is competitive enough that turnout among black voters could decide the outcome. Voters still have until election day to cast ballots, and the early-vote totals already exceed 1 million.

The takeaway

The two polls disagree on who leads the Senate race, so the outcome will depend heavily on turnout in the final days. Readers should check official South Carolina election results on November 3, 2026, for the confirmed outcome.

What happens next

South Carolina election day is November 3, 2026, when the Senate and governor races will be decided.

Further reading

For more on how the state's races are shaping up, see Elections coverage for South Carolina.

Live Poll

Do you plan to vote in South Carolina's Senate race on Tuesday?